Russia strengthens mediator role in India-China conflict

The difference of “mediator”

Before the online meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, regional media had been speculating about Russia secretly taking steps to mediate between China and India since June 17 - just over a day after the bloodiest clash in 45 years between Chinese and Indian soldiers in the disputed border area. Therefore, there is no reason why Russia should not take advantage of today's meeting to continue to strengthen its role as a "mediator" to help the two powers in the region cool down tensions, even though the India-China border dispute may only be discussed behind the scenes and not on the official agenda. Mr. Konstantin Kosachev, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee of the Russian Federation, affirmed that Russia should not and does not intend to intervene in the current border dispute between China and India. Nevertheless, Russia's task is to become a "reliable mediator" to prevent situations where military forces are mobilized by both sides - a prospect that Russia believes would create instability for regional security that Russia itself cannot avoid being affected by.

The foreign ministers of Russia, China and India will hold an online meeting today. Photo: Sputnik

In fact, when the India-China border conflict suddenly broke out in early May, Russia was not the first country to speak up, but the United States. But as soon as US President Donald Trump offered to mediate, both China and India immediately rejected it, affirming that the two sides would resolve the issue bilaterally. It is not difficult to see that if the US acts as a mediator, it will be difficult for the US to maintain the necessary balance, in the context of the relationship between the US and China being said to be at its lowest point in many years with deep disagreements in many areas. Even President Donald Trump's desire to invite India, Australia, Russia and South Korea to the G7 Summit scheduled for September is considered an attempt to contain China.

But Russia is different, Russia has many factors that make it impossible to be considered a “normal third party”. At present, Russia is maintaining very good relations with both China and India. Both countries are currently major strategic partners of Russia in terms of economy and security. Both China and India have signed multi-billion dollar defense deals with Russia and purchased S-400 surface-to-air missile systems despite pressure from the US. Not only that, Russia, India and China also have a three-way tie as they are all members of the BRICS Group of Emerging Countries and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). Russia will try to play a behind-the-scenes role to promote bilateral negotiations between India and China, avoiding India-China tensions affecting the schedule of two important events that Russia is hosting, the SCO Summit and the BRICS Summit later this year. According to Chairman of the Russian Federation Committee on Foreign Affairs Konstantin Kosachev, Russia understands India's position on sovereignty, Russia also understands China's position on sovereignty, and if Russia plays a constructive mediating role, India and China can resolve their differences.

Russia is trying to prevent China and India from mobilizing military forces in the disputed border area. Photo: Global Times

Behind the Balance

Analysts say that playing the role of mediator in the India-China border conflict is also an opportunity for Russia to build the image of a "regional peacekeeper" - an image that any country wants to have in a multilateral world order. But to do that, Russia will have to maintain a balanced position between India and China - something the US cannot do, and it is not easy for Russia. At present, it can be seen that Russia is maintaining good relations with both India and China. During the outbreak of the border conflict between India and China, the Russian press also published articles expressing a neutral stance, balancing the interests of both China and India. But if we look deeper into the Russia-India and Russia-China relations, we can see the difference in the way Russia maintains relations with the two regional powers.

For India, the bilateral relationship has been built since the former Soviet Union and has been steadily developing for more than 70 years. But besides the long tradition, the Russia-India relationship is also strengthened by strategic goals in the complex picture of strategic competition between the great powers. On the international level, Russia and China are said to be increasingly closer to create a counterweight to the US. But on the regional level, the rise of China also forces Russia to make calculations, and a more assertive and powerful India will create a counterweight to China in the region. Russia has repeatedly expressed its support for India in multilateral forums, for example, supporting India to hold a permanent seat in the idea of ​​expanding the membership of the United Nations Security Council, or supporting India to become a member of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) - an alliance of 48 nuclear supplying countries that controls the export of nuclear equipment and technology globally. Russia and India also signed an agreement in 2014 to build 12 Russian-designed nuclear power plants in India. When Russia outlined the path for India to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in 2017, speculation arose that Russia wanted India to counter China in the region in addition to promoting the organization’s overall development.

Russia has a different position than the US when it comes to mediating between China and India. Photo: Getty

Meanwhile, the Russia-China relationship is said to be more affected by current events. Russia has repeatedly affirmed that its relationship with China is at its best level ever. According to analysts, China is a very important partner for Russia as Russia - under President Putin - begins to challenge the unipolar world order led by the US. The anti-Russia campaign in the West with consecutive sanctions recently imposed has further contributed to tightening the relationship between Russia and China.

With Russia's growing position in international hotspots, and its good relations with both China and India, international public opinion expects today's online meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia, China and India will create a premise to promote diplomatic steps to cool down the Sino-Indian border tensions. However, as India and China still have many different views on the Line of Actual Control (LAC), as both sides continue to blame each other, it is likely that small-scale clashes will continue to recur, and the Ladakh border area will continue to be a place where major powers - Russia, China and India - will seek every way to prove their position in the region.