Russia withdraws troops from Kherson city: A step back or a dangerous move by Moscow?

Necessary steps

The Russian Defense Ministry announced on November 11 that the Russian military had completed its withdrawal from the right bank of the Dnieper River in the Kherson region. All Russian forces and equipment had been transferred to the left bank of the river. General Sergey Surovikin, commander of Russian forces in Ukraine, said the withdrawal would help protect the lives of civilians and soldiers, who were facing a major Ukrainian counterattack targeting Russian ammunition depots, command centers and blocking their supply lines.

A local resident walks through the Vysokopillya area in Kherson province. Photo: AP

Shortly after Russia withdrew its troops, Ukraine released video showing its troops cautiously entering the city of Kherson. Ukraine accused Russia of planting mines and leaving roadblocks to hinder its troops from advancing and retaking the area. Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the Ukrainian president, said the Russians wanted to “turn Kherson into a dead city” as they withdrew.

Ukrainian forces have now crossed into an area that will stretch to the Dnieper River. The two sides are facing each other, separated by the river, with a distance of about 250km. While Ukraine believes this could be a trap set by Russia, some experts say Moscow’s decision is based on many calculations and strategic considerations.

According to CNN, Russian forces have withdrawn from 40% of Kherson, but they still control 60% of the territory, south and east of the Dnieper, including the coastline along the Sea of ​​Azov. As long as Russian troops control and defend the eastern bank of the Dnieper, Ukrainian forces will have a difficult time trying to destroy the canal that supplies fresh water to the Crimean peninsula.

Moving to the east bank would make it easier for Moscow to replenish its troops and reinforce its defenses. Any attempt by the Ukrainian army to cross the Dnieper would likely fail or be costly, as the Russian army has established a fortified line along the river, building numerous bunkers and digging deep trenches while civilians have been evacuated from homes near the river.

In Moscow, some hardliners criticized the Russian Defense Ministry’s decision, but many voiced support. Ramzan Kadyrov, leader of Russia’s Chechen Republic, said General Surovikin had saved a thousand soldiers by making a “difficult but right choice.” He said Kherson was a difficult area to fight in, especially since supply lines were not secured. For Russia, getting ammunition and other supplies was becoming more difficult after Ukraine stepped up its counteroffensive and repeatedly attacked Russian logistics bases with long-range missiles.

The battle for Kherson is not over yet

Analysts say the battle for Kherson and the rest of Ukraine is far from over. Even as Russia announced its withdrawal, satellite imagery showed Russian forces digging vast trenches and building fortifications east of Kherson, according to several open intelligence agencies.

The Kremlin’s order called for a withdrawal from the right bank of the Dnieper. Early in the war, Russia had attempted to seize control of the area with tanks, infantry and artillery. Even if Moscow withdrew to the opposite bank of the river, it could still fire artillery across the river to attack enemy forces if the Ukrainian army tried to establish strongholds inside the city.

Many Western military analysts believe that Russia seems to be worried about Ukraine moving further east of Kherson because then Russian supply lines from Crimea would be vulnerable to Ukrainian artillery attack.

Ukrainian and Western officials have speculated for weeks about a possible Russian withdrawal from the Kherson region, but have remained cautious.

A Western intelligence official said Kherson was important to both sides. For Russia, the vast Kherson region, which connects mainland Ukraine to the Crimean peninsula, would provide Moscow with a narrow land corridor to resupply its troops from its large bases in Crimea. For Ukraine, Kherson is strategically located so its army can adjust its counterattack.

A Ukrainian artillery unit prepares to fire towards Kherson. Photo: Getty

“The part of Kherson province on the right bank of the Dnipro River is important from a military point of view, because this position allows us to fire on the Russian supply route from Crimea,” said Serhiy Kuzan, an adviser to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.

According to some observers, Russia appears to be sacrificing some initial gains for the larger goal of securing its new positions to maintain vital logistics routes.

Michael Horowitz, head of intelligence at Le Beck, a security consultancy, said the withdrawal was necessary in the short term: “The Russian army is increasingly isolated on the right bank of the Dnieper, making it difficult to defend its strongholds there despite constant reinforcements. By moving to the left bank of the river, they will be able to gather a larger force. In addition, the Dnieper River also creates a natural barrier that will make it easier for them to deal with Ukrainian attacks. Russia has been building up its defenses on the other side of the river in the past few weeks.”

According to Michael Horowitz, Russia has a clear tactical advantage, which is to move towards a more solid defense line and avoid major losses. However, Moscow is somewhat losing the initiative and necessary leverage.

“If Russia can successfully withdraw its units without suffering heavy losses, it will likely be in a stronger position to hold the existing front line. That is why a safe withdrawal is so important,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the US-based Foreign Policy Research Institute.

What happens next?

Many analysts and diplomats have speculated that the war will enter a winter lull as both sides’ militaries recover. Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, has noted that a lull in fighting would be an opportune time for negotiations. But the Ukrainian government has argued that it could help Russia’s interests, suggesting that even if conditions were to arise that would slow Ukraine’s advance, it would not be willing to stop its offensive.

There are conflicting predictions about what might happen next. Military analysts say the drawing of a new front line at the southern end of the Dnieper River, with the two countries’ armies controlling it, would essentially bring the Kherson front to a standstill. The vast width of the river and the damage to the Antonivksy Bridge make it difficult for the two armies to pursue each other.

Justin Bronk, a senior fellow in military science at the Royal United Services Institute in London, said Ukrainian special forces would conduct small-scale, steady attacks behind Russian lines. According to the New York Times, there is evidence that Ukraine continues to attack behind Russian lines, notably missile strikes against Russian forces massed at several locations along the western bank of the river and sporadic attacks on the two southern cities of Melitopol and Henichesk, near the Black Sea.

Other analysts are more cautious. Justin Bronk, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute in London, predicts that both sides may have to pause military operations because of the difficulty of moving due to the muddy ground, and the wet and cold environment in winter. Then a major battle will break out in the spring. This expert believes that Ukraine's next goals are likely to be to advance towards the city of Melitopol, continue to push Russian forces out of the Kharkiv region, and retake the town of Svatove in the Luhansk region./.