Russia - Ukraine exchange prisoners: Small steps nurture hope

Sign of goodwill

On the night of September 7, Russia and Ukraine carried out a long-awaited prisoner exchange. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that all prisoners in this exchange had been transferred to the points agreed upon a day earlier.

Earlier, Mr. Zelensky signed amnesty orders for 12 Russian citizens convicted and serving sentences in Ukraine. The Ukrainian authorities said the procedure would be held in a 35-for-35 or 42-for-40 format.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky welcomes prisoners of war returned from Russia on September 7. Photo: AP

Immediately after the prisoner exchange took place, Russian and Ukrainian leaders gave positive assessments of this event. Speaking on September 7, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky affirmed that this was the first step in a process to end the conflict in the Donbass region, eastern Ukraine.

He also expressed hope that a four-way meeting of the Normandy Four group, between Ukraine, Russia, France and Germany, would soon help resolve the conflict with independence forces in the East.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin also assessed the prisoner exchange agreement as "a big step towards normalizing relations" between Moscow and Kiev.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a key partner in the peace process in eastern Ukraine, also welcomed the prisoner exchange as a "sign of hope". She also called on all sides to implement the ceasefire agreement reached in 2015, which France and Germany played a mediating role.

Although long-awaited, the prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine was only accelerated after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky took office. Several weeks ago, the two sides began negotiations to agree on the list of prisoners to be exchanged.

President of Ukraine Zelensky.

On September 5, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the negotiations were about to end and that this could be a step forward in the process of normalizing relations between the two countries. This is a small step, but necessary for both Russia and Ukraine to believe that the other side has the goodwill to restore relations.

Since falling into crisis in 2014, when Russia annexed Crimea and the conflict broke out in eastern Ukraine, the two neighboring countries have almost completely cut off all cooperation and dialogue. The fighting has also killed more than 13,000 people in 5 years, and led to the West imposing blockades and embargoes on Russia.

A difficult problem for Zelensky

One of the priorities of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky upon taking office was to improve relations with Russia and promote the peace process in the East. This is primarily for Ukraine's long-term strategic interests.

First, improving relations with Russia is the desire of the Ukrainian people. It has been five years since the revolution on Maidan Square in Kiev, but the Donbass region of Ukraine remains in a state of confrontation and military conflict.

Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky. Photo: RT

With the incitement of the crisis in Crimea and the conflict in Donbass, ultranationalist parties entered the Ukrainian Parliament for the first time in 2014, becoming one of the important factors influencing the country's foreign policy.

The spread of extreme nationalism makes Ukrainian diplomacy lack flexibility, limiting the policy space for diplomatic means to resolve the conflict.

After paying a huge price in terms of security costs and time, people have witnessed changes in Ukrainian public opinion towards a more rational direction. The results of the Ukrainian presidential and parliamentary elections have shown that the political forces advocating dialogue with Russia and implementing reforms in the country have prevailed.

Next, maintaining good relations with Russia is related to Ukraine's security and territorial integrity. In fact, when it comes to security in the Donbass region in the East, Kiev has always been at a disadvantage when it comes to military potential.

And if the separatist and conflict continues, the Donbass region could be cut off from the map of Ukraine forever. In April, Russia announced it would simplify the procedure for Donbass residents to obtain Russian citizenship.

It is a message to Kiev: the Ukrainian central government must restart the political process to resolve the conflict in Donbass, otherwise the situation will continue to deteriorate.

Normalizing relations with Russia is also directly related to economic interests. Tensions over the past five years have forced Russia to consider other gas transit projects to Europe to reduce its dependence on Kiev.

And so far, they have succeeded with the Nord Stream 1, Turkish Stream and soon Nord Stream 2 pipelines. Andriy Kobelev, CEO of the National Oil and Gas Company of Ukraine (Naftogaz), believes that Nord Stream 2 alone will cause economic losses of about $3 billion/year, equivalent to 3% of Ukraine's GDP.

The Nord Stream 2 project, when completed, will cause economic losses of about 3 billion USD/year, equivalent to 3% of Ukraine's GDP. Photo: Inforos

On December 31, the energy transit agreement between Russia and Ukraine will expire and if it is not renewed, Ukraine will not only lose revenue from gas transit fees but also face a serious shortage of energy supplies.

However, despite its desire to improve relations with Russia, the administration of President Volodymyr Zelensky faces many obstacles. Nationalism and anti-Russian sentiment are deeply ingrained in the political consciousness of Ukrainian society. This makes policy choices less flexible and clear-sighted.

In addition, “cooling down” with Russia also means losing the support of major Western countries, which hope that Ukraine will be a tool to contain a powerful Russia. Any choice has a price, but what price is acceptable? The question is waiting for President Zelensky in this term./.