The card that gives North Korea the upper hand over the US

Washington would have a hard time responding if Pyongyang launched a nuclear attack because North Korea keeps Seoul and a US city within range.

A North Korean missile. Photo: KCNA.

Many say that if North Korea were to use nuclear weapons, it would be suicidal. But as AP writer Eric Talmadge points out, North Korea could escalate to nuclear war and still survive. The August 29 missile test suggests it may be preparing to do just that if pushed into a corner.

North Korea has never said it would use nuclear weapons to strike the United States or its allies. But like Washington, it has made it quite clear that if it is attacked or has reason to believe an attack is imminent, it reserves the right to retaliate or even launch a preemptive strike.

The "last straw" for North Korea could be unusual US military activity in South Korea or US bases in Japan or flights of B-1B bombers from bases on Guam.

If Kim Jong-un believes North Korea is about to be attacked, Pyongyang could target US bases in Japan. A more violent move would be to attack a Japanese city like Tokyo. A nuclear strike would send the strongest message, but chemical weapons are also an option.

North Korea’s ability to strike the US mainland with nuclear missiles is key to its survival in this scenario, which is why Kim has rushed to complete them and introduce them to the world.

"The reason they developed ICBMs was for deterrence, to keep the US from retaliating nuclearly, because if you can hold a US city within short range, the US calculus will always change," said Vipin Narang, a professor of political science at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“Are we really willing to risk Los Angeles or Chicago in retaliation for an attack on a US military base in the region?” he asked. “Probably not.”

According to Talmadge, Kim Jong-un has good reason to fear a US attack. The US is unlikely to start a war unilaterally. But if it did, North Korea would face a stronger and better-equipped enemy. A successful US attack could, in a matter of days or even hours, destroy the North Korean leadership or at least disrupt its command structure and destroy a significant portion of its fighting power.

So North Korea has a strong incentive to escalate quickly, before it loses everything, Talmadge noted.

Under Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, North Korea relied on conventional artillery north of the Demilitarized Zone to hold off Washington, assuming that the United States would not take any action that might provoke a North Korean retaliatory strike on the South Korean capital of Seoul because the consequences would be catastrophic.

Kim Jong-un fears “snake-heading attacks” (attacks aimed at eliminating the enemy's top leadership), so he sees missiles and nuclear weapons as a layer of protection, Talmadge assessed.

Kim’s strategy is to neutralize Washington’s military options by holding both Seoul and a U.S. city hostage, while building the ability to withstand a U.S. first strike or retaliatory strike. To do that, North Korea is developing a range of missiles that can be launched from land or submarines, easily hidden and transported to hard-to-detect locations.

Over the past few weeks, US President Donald Trump has vowed to unleash fire and fury on North Korea if it continues to threaten the United States.

Narang said Trump was trying to intimidate North Korea by making it think the US would do anything to end the tensions. However, his move had little effect. Pyongyang continued to threaten the US without major consequences. Trump's cabinet members then tried to calm the situation.

“When Trump makes harsh statements, administration aides always try to play it down,” he said.

According to VNE