US-China relations continue to decline in Trump's second year in office

As the second year dawns, analysts and policymakers are predicting further disagreements in the relationship between the two countries.

Along with President Trump's declining domestic approval ratings, Washington's position on the most pressing issues identified by the US leader, issues that require Beijing's cooperation, has weakened: the US trade deficit with China has increased and North Korea appears to possess nuclear weapons.

US President Donald Trump ends his first year in office. Photo: AP

In an interview with SCMP, Professor Shi Yinhong, director of the Center for American Studies at Renmin University of China and adviser to the State Council, China's top government body, said: "We have seen a cycle of behavior from Mr. Trump, an unpredictable president, who is kind to China at one moment but harsh towards the Northeast Asian country the next."

The expert said he was “not optimistic” about the prospects for bilateral relations as Mr Trump appeared set to impose punitive tariffs on Chinese imports.

There were signs that the relationship continued to deteriorate this week, when in a phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Mr Trump expressed “frustration” over the growing US-China trade deficit last year and said “the situation is out of control”.

“As China’s power grows in the international arena, the structure of Sino-US relations is changing and Washington’s concerns about Beijing will continue to be present,” said Jie Dalei, an expert from Peking University of International Studies.

The expert said the personal relationship between the two countries' leaders had previously played an important role in stabilizing a series of difficult issues in the bilateral relationship.

However, Mr. Jie said: “I don't think anyone in China or any country can say with certainty that they have the ability to influence the decision-making of the US leader.”

In his second year in office, analysts and policymakers are predicting further rifts in US-China relations. Photo: AP

Meanwhile, other leading analysts agree on the direction of the US-China relationship. “President Trump’s approach to policy, not just toward China but around the world, is hard to pin down at different times,” said Elizabeth Economy, director of Asia studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. “This is the first time China has had to drive the shaping of the relationship. Someone needs to take the lead.”

And China is doing this by working more closely with other countries on trade while its bilateral relationship with Washington is strained.

Tara Joseph, director of the American Chamber of Commerce in Hong Kong, said the US business community in mainland China is taking a “wait and see” approach.

“We don’t have a clear view of the policies in Washington,” Joseph said. “The current administration is a different kind of government, so there’s no ready-made script to follow. But no one wants a war of words, which would be bad for businesses everywhere.”