Will the historic Serbia-Kosovo deal help President Trump fight back?

This is considered an impressive diplomatic achievement of Mr. Trump when the US has done what the European Union (EU) has been trying to do for nearly a decade without success. This is even more meaningful to Mr. Trump when the race for the US presidency is increasingly fierce, requiring more support from voters. Will the "Serbia - Kosovo card" really bring an advantage to Mr. Donald Trump?

Surpassing the EU

Right in the Oval Office during a meeting with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti last weekend, President Donald Trump officially announced: "Serbia and Kosovo have committed to normalizing economic relations." Mr. Trump also praised this as a historic agreement, a "major breakthrough" since Kosovo unilaterally declared independence and separated from Serbia in 2008.

US President Donald Trump (center) with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic (left) and Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti (right) on September 4 in Washington, USA. Photo: AFP

It is not difficult to explain President Donald Trump's jubilant attitude even though the two sides have just agreed to normalize economic relations. The US special envoy for Serbia-Kosovo negotiations, Mr. Richard Grenell, newly appointed late last year, seems to have had an achievement that exceeded expectations.

It should be recalled that before the US, the European Union (EU) had for nearly a decade played the role of mediator between Serbia and Kosovo but without success. Up to now, the international community is still divided in recognizing the territory of Kosovo. The US and most EU member states have recognized the territory of Kosovo, while Russia and China deny the sovereignty of Kosovo. Therefore, for a long time, the dispute over the status of this territory has been one of the causes of instability in the Balkan region.

Therefore, the agreement to normalize economic relations just reached between Serbia and Kosovo is an impressive "move" of President Donald Trump with the message that the US has and still has a role and prestige in international relations and peace dialogue processes between countries. In the context that the Washington administration is still being criticized for its handling of the Covid-19 epidemic or social unrest, racism and being led by candidate Joe Biden, this diplomatic achievement can regain some of the support of American voters for current President Donald Trump. For his part, quite surprised by his opponent's breakthrough, former Vice President Joe Biden in a recent press interview simply commented "this is a good thing", that "Kosovo should be an independent country, not a part of Serbia".

The European Union has failed in its role as a mediator between Serbia and Kosovo. Photo: The Srpska Times

Along with the surprise, candidate Biden and his campaign team are probably also wary of Mr. Trump's unexpected last-minute "counterattacks." Not only has Serbia normalized economic relations with Kosovo, but it has also pledged to move its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, becoming the first European country to have an embassy in Jerusalem. Kosovo and Israel also agreed to normalize relations and establish diplomatic relations. This event follows the historic agreement to normalize relations between Israel and the United Arab Emirates reached last month. The Trump administration's successive diplomatic victories seem to be making not only its opponents but also the international public curious.

Substance or form?

White House National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien said in a statement that the US is ready to facilitate the normalization of economic relations between Serbia and Kosovo. Representatives of both sides also expressed their hope that this agreement will open a new phase of substantive cooperation towards a unified economic zone in the entire Western Balkans, creating more jobs, encouraging investment... The document also includes a number of agreements on railway cooperation or preparing for the first flight between Pristina and Belgrade - the capitals of both sides after 21 years. Kosovo Prime Minister Hoti also particularly believes that this agreement will be a step closer to normalizing relations with Serbia, on the basis of mutual respect and recognition.

However, according to many observers, it seems that the agreement just reached is only symbolic, meaning to resume negotiations but does not have many substantive provisions on economic cooperation between the two sides. Not to mention, contrary to Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti's great expectations about a "mutual recognition" in the future, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic does not think so! Mr. Vucic, in an interview on the sidelines of the recent talks, affirmed that Serbia will not accept the recognition of Kosovo. And that the signed agreements do not contain any provisions called "mutual recognition".

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic (right) and Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti. Photo: Reuters - AFP

In addition, there is a detail that President Vucic noted, which is that this country signed a bilateral agreement with the US and Kosovo as well, not both signed a joint agreement. This statement is to refute doubts that continuing the economic agreement will mean accepting the roadmap to recognize Kosovo as an independent country. According to observers, the fact that the Serbian government, from firmly refusing to recognize Kosovo as a sovereign country, has now begun to normalize relations, even though it is only economic, with the Kosovo government, must have received "beneficial exchanges". For example, huge economic funding or, more importantly, the goal of joining the European Union (EU) that this country is still cherishing.

Meanwhile, for mediator Donald Trump, the calculation to score points with voters is like that, but there are opinions that, in reality, foreign affairs issues such as Serbia-Kosovo relations are not front-page news in the US. That also means, Mr. Trump's diplomatic achievements, no matter how outstanding and surprising, are unlikely to have much impact on voter attitudes from now until November 3. Because for the American people, jobs, health, social security and other domestic issues..., are the top concerns.

So whether it is in substance or just in form, whether Mr. Trump can attract more support from the American people for the “Serbia-Kosovo agreement” or not, will still need time. That is not to mention that the persistent political problems between Serbia and Kosovo will not be easily overlooked because of some pressure or bargaining from the big guys outside!./.