Will the historic Serbia-Kosovo agreement help President Trump launch a counterattack?

This is considered an impressive diplomatic achievement for Trump, as the US has accomplished something the European Union (EU) has been trying to do for almost a decade without success. This is even more significant for Trump as the race for the US presidency intensifies, requiring even more voter support. Will the "Serbia-Kosovo card" truly give Donald Trump an advantage?

Outperforming the EU

Right in the Oval Office during a meeting with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic and Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti last weekend, President Donald Trump officially announced: “Serbia and Kosovo have committed to normalizing economic relations.” Trump also hailed it as a historic agreement, a “major breakthrough” since Kosovo unilaterally declared independence and separated from Serbia in 2008.

US President Donald Trump (center) with Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic (left) and Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti (right) on September 4 in Washington, D.C. Photo: AFP

It's not difficult to understand President Donald Trump's jubilant attitude, even though the two sides have only recently agreed to normalize economic relations. The US special envoy for Serbia-Kosovo negotiations, Richard Grenell, appointed late last year, seems to have just achieved a feat that exceeded all expectations.

It should be recalled that, prior to the US, the European Union (EU) had spent nearly a decade mediating between Serbia and Kosovo, but without success. To this day, the international community remains divided on the recognition of Kosovo. The US and most EU member states have recognized Kosovo, while Russia and China deny its sovereignty. Therefore, for a long time, the dispute over the status of this territory has been one of the causes of instability in the Balkan region.

Therefore, the recent agreement to normalize economic relations between Serbia and Kosovo is seen as an impressive move by President Donald Trump, sending the message that the US has and continues to have a role and prestige in international relations and peace dialogue processes between countries. In the context of the Washington administration still being criticized for its handling of the Covid-19 pandemic and issues of social unrest and racial discrimination, and trailing behind candidate Joe Biden, this diplomatic achievement could partially restore support from American voters for incumbent President Donald Trump. For his part, surprisingly, former Vice President Joe Biden, in a recent press interview, simply commented, "This is a good thing," and that "Kosovo should be an independent country, not part of Serbia."

The European Union has been unsuccessful in its role as a mediator between Serbia and Kosovo. Photo: The Serbian Times

Along with the surprises, Biden and his campaign team are likely also wary of unexpected last-minute "counterattacks" from Trump. Not only has Serbia normalized economic relations with Kosovo, but it has also committed to moving its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, becoming the first European country to have an embassy in Jerusalem. Kosovo and Israel have also agreed to normalize relations and establish diplomatic ties. This follows the historic normalization agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates reached last month. These successive diplomatic victories by the Trump administration seem to be piquing the curiosity of not only opponents but also international public opinion.

Substance or form?

White House National Security Advisor Robert O'Brien stated in a press release that the U.S. is ready to facilitate the normalization of economic relations between Serbia and Kosovo. Representatives from both sides also expressed their hope that this agreement would usher in a new phase of substantive cooperation towards a unified economic zone across the entire Western Balkans, creating jobs and encouraging investment. The document also includes agreements on railway cooperation and preparations for the first flight between Pristina and Belgrade – the capitals of both countries – in 21 years. Kosovo Prime Minister Hoti also expressed particular confidence that this agreement would be a step closer to normalizing relations with Serbia, based on mutual respect and recognition.

However, according to many observers, the agreement just reached seems to be merely symbolic, signifying the resumption of negotiations rather than containing many substantive provisions on economic cooperation between the two sides. Furthermore, contrary to the high expectations of Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti for future "mutual recognition," Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic disagrees! In an interview on the sidelines of the recent talks, Vucic affirmed that Serbia would not accept the recognition of Kosovo. He also stated that the signed agreements did not contain any clauses regarding "mutual recognition."

Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic (right) and Kosovo Prime Minister Avdullah Hoti. Photo: Reuters - AFP

Furthermore, President Vucic noted that Serbia had signed a bilateral agreement with the US, and Kosovo had also signed a joint agreement, rather than both sides signing a single document. This statement aimed to refute suspicions that the continuation of the economic agreement would mean accepting the path to recognizing Kosovo as an independent state. According to observers, the fact that the Serbian government, which had previously firmly refused to recognize Kosovo as a sovereign state, is now beginning to normalize relations, albeit only economic ones, with the Kosovo authorities, must have received some "beneficial exchanges." For example, huge economic aid or, more significantly, the goal of joining the European Union (EU) that the country still aspires to.

Meanwhile, while Donald Trump, acting as a mediator, is calculating how to score voter points, some argue that, in reality, foreign policy issues like the Serbia-Kosovo relationship are not front-page news attracting significant attention in the US. This also means that Trump's diplomatic achievements, however outstanding and unexpected, may not significantly impact voter attitudes between now and November 3rd. For Americans, jobs, health, social security, and other domestic issues remain the top priorities.

Therefore, whether genuine or merely symbolic, whether Trump can garner more support from the American people for the "Serbia-Kosovo deal" will still require time. This is without even considering that the long-standing political issues between Serbia and Kosovo will not be easily overlooked due to pressure or bargaining from powerful external forces!