What message is hidden behind the US-Korea summit?

US President Joe Biden and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol shake hands during a press conference in the Rose Garden of the White House on April 26. Photo: AP

South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol met with his US counterpart Joe Biden at the White House on April 26, in a rare state visit as the two countries seek to confront shared concerns.

The event is only the second state visit to the United States by a foreign leader during Biden’s term, following French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit in late 2022. The White House’s decision to bestow this honor on Yoon, who is a “wet-behind-the-ears” political newcomer before taking office in May 2022, may come as a surprise to some foreign policy observers.

Seoul does not have the influence in international politics that some other US allies do. It is an important economic partner, but so are Japan, Germany, Canada and Mexico – all of which rank above South Korea in terms of overall US trade.

So why did the US welcome the South Korean leader so solemnly? According to Professor Sung-Yoon Lee - a scholar specializing in Korean political history and US-East Asia relations at Tufts University, the answer to the above question can be determined in three locations on the world map, corresponding to the three governments in Pyongyang, Beijing and Moscow.

The White House meeting may be nominally seen as a strengthening of ties between Seoul and Washington, but in reality they will want to send a message of unity in the face of what they see as threats from North Korea, China and Russia.

The two leaders attended a military parade in Washington on April 26. Photo: AP

Friendship is forged in war

The relationship between Washington and Seoul was established during the 1950-53 Korean War. The alliance was also shaky for several decades, especially in the two decades after the 1953 armistice, during which South Korea’s self-sufficient economy was almost entirely dependent on US aid.

But in the past two decades, South Korea has narrowed the gap, becoming a world leader in areas such as electronics, shipping, automobiles, weapons, and pop culture. The U.S.-South Korea alliance has also grown out of economic interests as well as strategic and diplomatic concerns.

Even the awkwardness surrounding recent reports alleging US spying on the South Korean presidential office is unlikely to dampen the show of friendship expected to come during this bilateral meeting.

After all, Mr. Biden and Mr. Yoon have more pressing issues to address. This state visit comes after a year in which North Korea launched nearly 100 missiles into the skies above and around the Korean Peninsula, Russia launched a special military operation in Ukraine, and China stepped up its rhetoric on Taiwan. These are the issues that the leaders of the United States and South Korea will address when they meet.

Mr. Yoon and his wife Kim Keon Hee and Mr. Biden and his wife Jill Biden pose for a photo at a dinner at the White House on April 26. Photo: AP

North Korean Missile

For South Korea, the threat from Pyongyang to the North is very real. Biden is likely to emphasize the US commitment to South Korea’s defense against a nuclear-armed North Korea.

But the threat is not limited to the Korean Peninsula. Pyongyang’s intercontinental ballistic missiles now have the capability to reach the continental United States. This development may have caught Washington’s attention, but it has another consequence: the existential threat facing South Korea is now an existential threat to the United States.

Growing anxiety in South Korea – where more than 70% of people now support a homegrown nuclear weapons program rather than relying on a powerful ally – means Mr Yoon will want the US to continue to offer assurances that go beyond statements of “extended deterrence” and promises of an “ironclad” alliance.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un told the world last week that he was preparing to launch a spy satellite into space and was stepping up ballistic missile testing, especially during Mr Yoon’s visit to the US. It was a reminder to Mr Kim’s two main rivals that he has the ability to make things difficult for them.

Mr. Biden holds notes during a press conference with his South Korean counterpart in the Rose Garden. Photo: AP

The Rise of China

But the threat posed by North Korea is not the only security concern in East Asia for the US or South Korea. China’s rise as a force in the Indo-Pacific, and its perceived rivalry with Washington and Seoul in terms of economic and strategic interests, is another topic likely to be raised at the White House summit.

In fact, a few days before leaving for the US, Mr. Yoon mentioned the Taiwan issue in an interview with Reuters, saying that it was a “global issue”, implicitly reaffirming Mr. Biden’s statement in May 2022 about the importance of maintaining “peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait as an important factor in security and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region”.

The visit also comes as South Korea moves to repair relations with Japan. In March, Mr. Yoon met with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in the first formal bilateral meeting between the two leaders in 12 years. The more friendly atmosphere between Tokyo and Seoul is clearly beneficial to Washington’s plan to create a three-way alliance structure to counter the influence of major powers in the region.

Biden will also hope to further isolate China through economic measures, observers say. During his visit to the US, Yoon will travel to Boston, where he will highlight the importance of cooperation in the biotechnology and high-tech industries. The visit comes at a time when South Korea’s leading chipmakers, such as Samsung and SK Hynix, are facing pressure from the US to cut their semiconductor business in China.

Mr. Yoon will seek to promote joint investment between the United States and South Korea in the semiconductor sector to offset the impact of reduced sales to the Chinese market.

Ukraine "thirsty" for weapons

Next, the issue of the conflict in Ukraine is also likely to be mentioned.

In the past, South Korea has been largely parochial on security issues, which is understandable given the constant heat on the Korean Peninsula. Seoul has so far provided only economic and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, despite being the world’s eighth-largest arms exporter.

But Mr Yoon’s vision for South Korea is that of a “global pivot state” that puts freedom, values ​​and a rules-based international order at the heart of its foreign policy — and that leaves the door open for further intervention. If Mr Biden can quietly persuade his guest to commit to providing more arms and ammunition to Ukraine, it would be seen as a victory for both Mr Yoon’s vision and Mr Biden’s.

State visits are ceremonial in nature – and 2023 marks the 70th anniversary of the US-ROK alliance. But as strategic and economic concerns converge, the future relationship between the countries is being redefined by how the two allies simultaneously deal with geopolitical concerns on South Korea’s doorstep, in the wider region and the world beyond./.