Where will the Ukrainian front line go in 2024?

RT quoted a commentary by military analyst Conrad Music in the Polish newspaper Forsal, stating that the offensive capabilities of the Ukrainian Armed Forces have been exhausted and the Russian army is preparing for large-scale military operations. Therefore, Kiev cannot fight Russia to the point of attrition. Ukraine is not capable of defeating Russia on the battlefield.

According to military analyst Conrad Music, there is no simple answer to explain Ukraine's failure, because it includes many factors.

First, Ukraine chose to attack “the most fortified place in Europe.” Minefields, trenches, fortifications – the scale was enormous, and the Ukrainians could not organize a breakthrough attack on the Russian defenses in Zaporozhye.

Second, the Ukrainian forces had never experienced anything like this before, so there were difficulties at the management level. The command could not effectively carry out a coordinated attack.

The problem is that the Ukrainian army has dispersed its forces, some of them are deployed near Bakhmut, some are sent to the west of Donetsk region, and the largest group is mobilized towards Tokmak. The dispersion of forces is too large and unreasonable.

There are also training difficulties, both on the part of NATO and Ukraine. Kiev believes that the alliance does not understand the current conflict. The widespread use of surveillance drones everywhere and the intensity of artillery use are ineffective.

Meanwhile, on the Russian side, according to analyst Conrad Music, they have been preparing very carefully for this counter-offensive. For 6 months, they have been strengthening their positions in Zaporozhye, while the Ukrainians have focused on defending Bakhmut. If some Ukrainian forces were diverted south to make it more difficult for the Russians to build fortifications, this counter-offensive could very well be different.

"After all, this thousand-kilometer-long line of fortifications did not appear overnight. It was a long process that the Ukrainians watched, but could not stop," said Conrad Music.

Polish military analysts said that Russia has shown many times in history that it feels very comfortable in winter, and often takes advantage of winter conditions to carry out attacks. And it is likely that the Russian army will carry out some major operations in the next 2-3 months.

According to Conrad Music, 2024 will be more difficult for Ukraine than 2023. This is due to political reasons, especially related to the situation in the US, where the support of Congress is no longer available to Kiev. In addition, the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House seems quite realistic. Therefore, Ukraine must fight to ensure that the West maintains its interest and desire to support Kiev.

Analysts say it is difficult to predict where the front line will be in a year. On the one hand, arms production in Russia is developing very strongly. Judging by its stockpiles, as well as the number of troops, Russia is capable of carrying out a large-scale offensive operation.

Conrad Music commented that if Kiev planned a major offensive campaign to cause a strategic defeat for the Russian army, it must decide to mobilize its forces now.

"Ukraine cannot currently defeat Russia on the battlefield. In 2024, Ukraine should focus less on flashy things like F-16s and instead focus on basic tasks such as training reservists, improving tactics and coordinating combat between artillery and armor. Without this, it will be difficult to achieve success," said military analyst Conrad Music.