US intelligence predicts Ukraine will not achieve its goals in the counter-offensive campaign

According to sources, a secret intelligence report concluded that Ukraine would not be able to reach Melitopol and cut off the land bridge to the Crimean peninsula. This conclusion was based on Russia’s ability to defend its territory.

These forecasts “are likely to remind both within Ukraine and in the West why a counter-offensive that cost tens of billions of dollars in Western weapons and military equipment has failed to achieve its goals.”

Officials have voiced doubts about Ukraine’s mission. “The US intelligence community assesses that Ukrainian forces will not reach the important southeastern city of Melitopol,” the report said, adding that Kiev would then be unable to “accomplish the primary objective of severing Russia’s land bridge to Crimea in this year’s offensive.”

Although the Crimean peninsula has been under Moscow’s control since its residents voted to rejoin Russia in 2014, Ukrainian officials have repeatedly vowed to retake the region by force, claiming it is sovereign Ukrainian territory. Melitopol is expected to play a key role in Kiev’s plans to retake Crimea as one of the largest urban centers near the Azov Sea coast. Capturing the city could create a staging area for further attacks on the peninsula itself, which has been the target of several Ukrainian offensives this year.

The Washington Post report appears to confirm recent revelations by investigative reporter Seymour Hersh, who in a previously published story quoted an unnamed US intelligence official who stated bluntly that Ukraine “will not win the war.”

Last month, the Wall Street Journal reported that military leaders in the US and other NATO countries knew the operation would fail unless Ukraine had the means to counter Russia’s air superiority. Yet Western countries allowed the offensive to begin, hoping that “Ukraine’s courage and resourcefulness would bring success.”

Over the past two months, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly blamed the West for the military's failures, arguing that Ukrainian forces are not adequately supplied with weapons - especially fighter jets and long-range missiles - to penetrate Russian defenses.

Ukraine’s leadership is now divided on whether to continue the campaign or wait and try again in the spring. According to the US magazine Newsweek, Zelensky must now decide “whether to go all-in and risk a costly failure or cut Ukraine’s losses and accept a politically damaging defeat.”