Ukraine must prepare for harsh winter if it wants to maintain the initiative

Despite the efforts of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), five months on, the counteroffensive has failed to breach the Russian defenses. Ukraine now faces a difficult set of challenges: maintaining pressure on Russia while reorganizing its combat units for future offensive operations.

Jack Watling, a researcher at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), said that in the winter of 2022, most of the front saw fierce fighting, but only limited Ukrainian efforts to change the front line. However, the failure of the AFU to make any breakthroughs has allowed Russia to build three large defensive lines of mines, trenches, bunkers and other obstacles. All of this has made Ukraine's offensive operations this past summer much more difficult. If Ukraine does not continue to put pressure on Russia's defenses this winter, there is a risk that these defense lines will be expanded.

Another challenge for Ukraine lies in air defense, said researcher Jack Watling. Russian attacks on critical infrastructure would pose a major threat to Ukraine.

"Ukraine should prepare for a difficult winter. Russia's upcoming attacks on Ukraine's critical national infrastructure are a strategic threat," said researcher Jack Watling.

During the summer, Ukraine saw ammunition consumption rates of over 200,000 per month. In the coming period, the AFU will not have enough ammunition to maintain the rate of fire as NATO reserves are depleted and production rates remain too low to meet demand.

On the Russian side, in comparison, Watling noted, the Russian army is increasingly receiving more offensive weapons from the productivity of the military industry. The number of long-range missiles produced has doubled over the past year. In October 2022, Russia produced about 40 long-range missiles per month. It is currently producing more than 100 per month.