Ukraine prisoner exchange: Peace on the horizon?

This activity is within the framework of the agreement reached between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Zelensky, and is also a positive result from the recent “Normandy Four” summit held in Paris, France. Observers say that the consecutive cooling moves are signaling that a door to peace is very close in the eastern region of Ukraine.

Trust given

The consecutive prisoner exchanges between Russia and Ukraine between the central government of Kiev and the separatists in the East are making the public wonder whether the two sides are truly willing and want to build trust with each other! According to information from the Office of the President of Ukraine, in this prisoner exchange, the Kiev government returned 124 independence fighters, in return, the separatists in the East released 76 prisoners who supported the Ukrainian government.

People returned by the Ukrainian government in a prisoner exchange with separatists in the East. Photo: Reuters

Previously, last September, Russia and Ukraine also exchanged a total of 70 prisoners. While Russia considered this a move to normalize relations with Ukraine, with the latest step, many European countries highly appreciated it, considering it as the opening signal for the process of ending the conflict in the Eastern Ukraine region. French President Macron and German Chancellor Merkel immediately issued a joint statement welcoming this positive move by the parties.

In fact, according to observers, this was a foregone conclusion after the Normandy Four summit, comprising France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine, on December 10 in Paris, France. Here, the parties issued a joint statement in which they agreed to immediately implement measures to stabilize the conflict in eastern Ukraine.

Most notably, Russia and Ukraine agreed to implement a comprehensive ceasefire in eastern Ukraine. The parties also agreed to release prisoners before the end of the year; along with the formation of three new de-escalation zones, allowing civilians to cross the control line separating Donetsk and Lugansk from other regions of Ukraine.

The Normandy Four summit of leaders of Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine held in Paris, France on December 9, 2019, agreed on many contents about the crisis in Eastern Ukraine. Photo: AP

Although it is not considered to have really created a breakthrough, this is still considered a significant success, gradually realizing the efforts of the parties to reduce tensions, towards ending the conflict that has lasted for more than 5 years in eastern Ukraine. Remember, the most recent prisoner exchange was in 2017, the Kiev government and the separatist forces also exchanged more than 300 prisoners. However, this activity was stalled until Mr. Zelensky was elected President of Ukraine and cherished the hope of peace for the eastern region.

The road to peace is long!

There is no denying that the grand strategic goal that President Zelensky set during his term is a scenario of peace and stability in the Eastern Ukraine region. However, with 5 years of conflict and overlapping interests, it is not easy for a young leader like Mr. Zelensky. It is not only the difficulties in relations with Russia and the Normandy Four but also the pressure from within the country.

Improving relations with Russia and promoting the peace process in the Eastern region is President Zelensky's biggest goal during his term. Photo: Unian

It should be recalled that, in addition to strictly implementing the Minsk agreement, including withdrawing weapons and troops to the demarcation line, the Normandy Four leaders recently supported the implementation of a concept called the “Steinmeier Formula”. Accordingly, elections will be held in Donetsk and Lugansk with the view of granting autonomous status to each region.

Ukrainian President Zelensky has maintained that such elections can only be held in accordance with Ukrainian law, on the condition that foreign military forces withdraw from the eastern region. However, the Joint Statement did not mention Mr. Zelensky's conditions. Not to mention, this mechanism has also encountered many objections within Ukraine due to different interpretations of the "Steinmeier formula". Some Ukrainian nationalist organizations then opposed Mr. Zelensky's policy by deploying armed groups to prevent the government from withdrawing troops from the border area.

For his part, Russian President Vladimir Putin said he wanted Ukraine to change its Constitution to grant the Donbass region a special autonomous status and open more crossing points on the front lines in eastern Ukraine for civilian and humanitarian activities. However, President Zelensky asserted that his government needs to control the entire territory of Ukraine.

Ukrainian military vehicles in Debaltseve, Donetsk region. Photo: AFP/TTXVN

In addition, in the major press conference at the end of last year, President Putin also emphasized that amending the Minsk Peace Agreement - an initiative of the President of Ukraine - could lead to a deadlock in the process of finding peace for the eastern region of the country. Previously, the different reactions between Mr. Putin and Mr. Zelensky about the results of the first bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the Normandy Conference also made public opinion skeptical about the positive signals between the parties. While President Putin expressed satisfaction with the discussions, President Zelensky said that the results achieved were too little.

While the problem with Russia has not been resolved, the Ukrainian President is also at a disadvantage when strong support from the US has significantly decreased, due to the impeachment of US President Donald Trump directly related to the Ukrainian government. Recently, domestic protests have also been carried out to threaten to overthrow Mr. Zelensky if this leader "gives in" or "surrenders" to President Putin's government.

Ukraine's relations with Russia cooled down with an agreement to end the gas war between the two sides. Illustration photo: AFP

Of course, the cooling of relations with Russia has also led to an agreement on December 20 to end the gas war between the two sides on the transit of gas through Ukraine for a period of 5 years. However, at the same time, this is a challenge for Mr. Zelensky when he has to balance the desire of the separatist region and improve relations with Russia as well as satisfy the nationalists. And that, the prisoner exchange with Russia in September and with the separatist region in the East just now are just the first steps in the process of finding peace for this region!