Russia-Ukraine conflict faces unpredictable developments as winter approaches

Russia’s efforts to counter Ukraine’s strong counteroffensive by mobilizing hundreds of thousands of reservists and launching a missile attack on Kiev and other Ukrainian cities in response to the Crimea bridge explosion represent a significant escalation in the more than seven-month conflict, Western intelligence and military experts say.

An office building was completely destroyed after a Russian raid in Zaporizhia province (Ukraine) on October 11. Photo: Reuters.

The widespread missile attack appeared to be a repeat of the early days of fighting in February, but also showed that the Russia-Ukraine conflict – which has been in a stalemate for months – has flared up again as winter approaches.

This is not the first time the war has entered an unpredictable new phase. “The war could enter phases three, four and five, as we are seeing now,” said Keir Giles, senior fellow of the Russia and Eurasia programme at the international affairs think tank Chatham House.

U.S. and many European officials predict that Ukraine will continue to counterattack in the coming months, even as winter weather conditions slow the pace of the war.

Speaking to reporters in Brussels, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said: “I hope Ukraine will continue its efforts throughout the winter to regain lost territory and gain effectiveness on the battlefield.”

Ukraine rushes to prepare for challenging winter

Ukraine is now consolidating control of areas it has recently captured in Kherson while Russia has also made advances, such as seizing several villages near the town of Bakhmut in eastern Donbass.

Analysts say the pace of the advance will slow as winter brings snow and ice in the east and mud in the south. Moving troops and equipment across the frontline will certainly be much more difficult. A Western official said that in the coming months, harsh winter weather could force Ukraine to halt its advances, so for now they need to maintain the initiative and momentum.

The next few weeks of the conflict will be crucial and another round of escalation is likely as each side seeks to strike a blow against the other and the other side seeks to respond in kind.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), the Ukrainian army is focused primarily on pushing Russian forces eastward, after crossing the Oskil River in late September, while Moscow is preparing to defend the cities of Starobilsk and Svatove in the Lugansk region. Ukrainian forces appear to want to strengthen their advantage before temperatures plummet and before Europe feels the negative effects of rising energy prices.

“There are many reasons for Kiev to complete the plan quickly, including the energy crisis in Europe in the winter, the destruction of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and power sources after attacks and not yet fully recovered. This will be a big test for the resilience of Ukraine and its Western supporters,” said Keir Giles.

NATO leaders have vowed to “stand shoulder to shoulder” with Ukraine no matter how long the war lasts, but some European countries – especially those heavily dependent on Russian energy – are facing a severe fuel crisis and skyrocketing living costs. If Kiev fails to maintain its advance on the battlefield, support for it could wane.

Recent incidents have shown that locations outside the front lines are not immune to attack. It is still unclear exactly how the Kerch Bridge bombing was carried out, and Kiev has not claimed responsibility, but the fact that a target in Russian-controlled territory was attacked highlights the threat posed by Ukraine to important Russian assets. Meanwhile, Russia’s missile strikes on infrastructure in several major Ukrainian cities have also taken Kiev and the West by surprise.

Russia also encountered many difficulties.

Russia has yet to gain air superiority and is struggling to counter Ukraine’s counteroffensive from multiple fronts, but the October 10 attack has reassured hardliners at home and demonstrated to the elite that Putin will not back down in the face of any threat and that the Russian military remains strong,” said Abbas Gallyamov, a Russian political analyst.

President Putin has warned that if Ukraine “continues terrorist attacks” on Russian infrastructure, Moscow will respond with a “strong and proportionate response.” The statement appeared to imply that Russia’s attack could be repeated.

However, Western intelligence believes that Russia will not be able to sustain such attacks because its stockpile of long-range precision weapons is limited and Western sanctions have made it difficult for Russia to continue producing cruise missiles and guided weapons. Jeremy Fleming - Director of the UK's top intelligence agency GCHQ emphasized: "We know and Russian commanders on the battlefield also know that their supplies of weapons and ammunition are running out."

ISW came to a similar conclusion in its update on the conflict: “Russia’s use of its limited supply of precision weapons to carry out such an attack could deprive Putin of options to deter a Ukrainian counterattack.”

Ukrainian soldiers with heavy weapons in Donbass. Photo: Reuters

The number of troops on the battlefield and the amount of weapons each side has in reserve will be crucial in determining how the battlefield will change in the coming weeks. Ukraine is calling on its Western partners to equip the country with more air and missile defense systems to repel potential Russian missile attacks in the future.

For its part, Moscow may receive help from its close ally Belarus. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s announcement that his country and Russia have agreed to deploy a joint military group in the region has raised concerns in the West that Belarus could become directly involved in the conflict. Belarus has warned of a Ukrainian threat to its security in recent days – something observers say could be a prelude to some level of involvement.

But the impact of Belarus’ intervention, if any, would be limited. Belarus has only about 45,000 active-duty troops. That would provide Russia with a small boost in manpower, but would threaten another attack on Ukraine’s northern flank.

“The reopening of the northern front would be a new challenge for Ukraine. It would provide Russia with a new route into the recaptured Kharkiv region if Putin prioritizes his efforts to regain this territory,” Giles said./.