Experts warn: 200,000 Americans could die from Covid-19

The number of deaths from Covid-19 in the US has increased to 1,195 people. Photo: Reuters

Last week, the US saw a 40% increase in Covid-19 cases in just 24 hours. This week, the number of daily cases continued to rise sharply - even as Americans practiced "social distancing" by working from home, limiting travel and staying 6-10 feet apart.

Eighteen infectious disease modelers estimate that only 12% of new coronavirus cases (including asymptomatic people) had been detected in the US as of March 15, meaning about 29,000 infections were undiagnosed at the time.

The US has now confirmed more than 83,206 cases and 1,195 deaths, officially surpassing China, where the pandemic began, to become the country with the most cases in the world. Researchers predict that the new coronavirus could kill about 195,000 people in the US by the end of the year, but that number varies widely depending on the model. The most extreme model predicts that as many as 1.2 million people could die.

Andrew Lover, an epidemiologist at the University of Massachusetts, toldFiveThirtyEightHis model is based on outbreaks in other countries, the ability to control the epidemic and the population density of the United States, he said.

However, not all of the Covid-19 deaths predicted by the models come from the current outbreak. Researchers also say there is a high likelihood of a second wave of the disease this fall (between August and December).

Many viruses tend to spread more easily in cold weather, so it’s possible that coronavirus cases could taper off in the summer and rebound in the fall. A recent study from scientists in Beijing (pending peer review) found that Covid-19 infections decreased with increasing temperatures and humidity. This is similar to what happened during the H1N1 pandemic, when the United States had two peaks: one in late June and early July and another in late October and early November. But because so much is still unknown about the new coronavirus, scientists aren’t sure if it will follow the same pattern.