Oil price forecast: Risk of further decline as supply exceeds demand.
World oil prices continue to be pressured by abundant supply and geopolitical instability, and are likely to fall further if key support levels are broken.
The oil market faces the risk of oversupply.
WTI crude oil prices have fallen for four consecutive sessions, currently fluctuating around $62 per barrel. The main reason is Iraq's expected resumption of exports of approximately 230,000 barrels per day from the Kurdistan region, bringing the total exports under the OPEC+ agreement to 3.40-3.45 million barrels per day. This further strains the global supply and demand balance.
Europe is also considering tightening liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies and imposing sanctions on energy tankers, further destabilizing an already fragile supply chain. These factors are putting significant downward pressure on short-term oil price forecasts.
WTI oil price trends
WTI is currently trading at $61.90 per barrel, just slightly above the support level of $61.71. The downward trend remains dominant as the RSI is low and the price is below key moving averages. A break below this support level could send the price plummeting to $61.19, or even down to $60.70.
Conversely, to regain balance, WTI needs to break above $62.70 and then retest the $63.80 area – considered strong resistance. However, the current trend remains bearish.
Brent crude oil price forecast
Brent crude is trading around $66.15 a barrel after breaking out of a symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling a continuation of the downtrend. The nearest support is at $65.73, further down at $65.07. If these levels fail to hold, prices could fall to $64.20.
Conversely, a recovery would only become clearer if Brent regains $66.67 and closes above $67.50. In that case, the target could extend to the $69.50 region. For now, the market remains under more selling pressure than buying pressure.
Natural gas price forecast
Natural gas is trading at $2.80, well below key moving averages. The downtrend remains dominant, with the nearest support at $2.77 and further support at $2.70. Only a recovery above $2.94 could lead the market back towards the $3.01 region.
