Gold prices are predicted to enter a new, strong upward cycle in early 2026.

Global gold prices are temporarily stabilizing after two consecutive weeks of decline, but the fundamentals remain very stable. According to Ole Hansen, Head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank, although short-term momentum is weakening, the long-term trend of global gold prices has not yet declined.

He said market sentiment shifted from euphoria to caution as investors reassessed factors such as interest rate cuts, fiscal tensions, hedging demand, and strong buying from central banks.

In Asia, physical demand is adjusting cyclically. In India, the post-festival period typically sees a decline in purchasing power, but this is expected to recover towards the end of the year as global gold prices stabilize.

In China, authorities ended a policy of exempting some retailers from VAT when buying gold through Shanghai exchanges, causing a slight increase in costs.

However, major investment channels such as gold bars, gold coins, and ETFs remain tax-exempt, helping to maintain purchasing power and support the stability of world gold prices.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's statement that a December interest rate cut is "uncertain" has strengthened the US dollar and temporarily cooled down global gold prices. However, US-China trade tensions and deeper issues such as supply chains, technology, and industrial policy remain unresolved.

Investors understand that the demand for safe-haven assets like gold remains long-term, bolstering the position of world gold prices amid global instability.

According to Hansen, this correction helps the market relieve pressure and maintain a long-term upward trend. The technical support zone for world gold prices is currently around $3,835 - $3,878/oz, corresponding to the 50% Fibonacci level of the August rally and the 50-day moving average.

Data shows that ETF inflows remain stable, with no signs of a sharp withdrawal, while central banks continued to net buy more than 220 tons of gold in the third quarter, a factor helping world gold prices maintain their balance.

Despite short-term weaknesses, macroeconomic factors such as public debt, currency risks, and Fed policy remain drivers for a long-term upward trend in global gold prices.

According to Ole Hansen, the 2025 peak may have already been reached, but the current phase is merely accumulation before a new bull cycle. History shows that after periods of sideways movement, gold often surges sharply when money flows back in.

If the pattern repeats, early 2026 will mark the beginning of a new gold wave, propelling global gold prices into the next chapter of a strong growth cycle.