Gold price forecast this week 2/17-2/23: Gold price slightly decreases before increasing again

World gold price forecast this week

Last week, the world gold price increased continuously since the beginning of the week, partly due to Valentine's Day when many young people considered gold not only a meaningful gift but also an attractive investment channel. In addition to the demand for holiday shopping, factors such as global economic fluctuations, the depreciation of the US dollar and trade tensions also contributed to the increase in gold prices.

However, gold prices fell slightly to below $2,900 an ounce over the weekend as many investors booked profits before the end of the week. Economic data from the US was also mixed, with the US dollar falling to its lowest level of the year and US Treasury yields falling sharply. This led to a decline of about 1% in gold-backed cryptocurrencies such as Paxos Gold (PAXG) and Tether Gold (XAUT).

With the US bank holiday (Presidents Day), the market may be less volatile. However, if gold prices remain at current levels, there may be another correction of about $30-40 before rising again.

Morgan Stanley said the drop could be a good buying opportunity, especially amid a recovering global economy, rising geopolitical tensions and growing government spending. Major financial institutions such as Citi and UBS have raised their gold price forecasts, with a short-term target of $3,000 an ounce.

James Stanley, senior strategist at Forex.com, said the gold bull trend remains strong and $3,000 an ounce could be reached in the near future. However, Colin Cieszynski of SIA Wealth Management was more cautious, saying gold needed time to correct after its recent strong rally.

Adrian Day, Chairman of Adrian Day Asset Management, and Rich Checkan from Asset Strategies International both agree that gold prices will continue to rise thanks to supportive factors such as economic uncertainty and demand for safe-haven assets.

Gold prices are expected to remain above $2,900 and continue to rise, supported by safe-haven demand, according to a report from ICICI Direct Research. The threat of tariffs and weak retail sales forecasts could weaken the US dollar, supporting higher gold prices.

According to a Kitco News survey, individual investors remain optimistic about gold prices, although not as strongly as before. Of the 14 Wall Street experts who participated in the survey, 71% forecast gold prices to rise next week, 14% predict a fall, and 14% think prices will go sideways. The survey of 201 individual investors showed that 65% expect prices to rise, 24% predict a fall, and 11% think prices will go sideways.

The $3,000/ounce level is considered an important psychological threshold. Some experts believe that gold prices could reach this mark in the first or second quarter of this year, depending on developments in monetary policy and the world economic situation.

Gold prices have had a volatile week and are still supported by many important macro factors. While many experts still believe in the uptrend, some warn of a possible correction in the short term. Investors will continue to monitor economic data, the Fed's interest rate movements and geopolitical tensions to make appropriate decisions.

Bank of America remains bullish on gold and maintains its forecast for prices to reach $3,000 an ounce.

Concerns about budget deficits, trade disputes, wars, sanctions and asset freezes by the US, central banks and other investors have pushed spot gold prices to record levels, said Michael Widmer, commodity strategist at Bank of America.

The most important piece of information to watch next week is the minutes from the Fed's most recent monetary policy meeting. However, economists do not expect the minutes to reveal anything that could move the market.

Looking ahead, as central bank gold buying dominates the market, gold prices could hit $3,500 an ounce.

Domestic gold price forecast this week

According to gold expert Tran Duy Phuong, last week, the demand for gold in the country was quite low. Many people were afraid of risks so they did not buy but chose to sell to make a profit. This prevented gold traders from increasing prices sharply according to world gold prices, leading to the gap between domestic and world gold prices being almost equal.

Mr. Phuong said that if the world gold price decreases slightly or moderately, the domestic gold price will remain the same. However, if the world gold price decreases sharply (about 100-200 USD/ounce), the domestic gold price will also decrease.

This expert also commented that if the world gold price does not decrease sharply in the next few weeks, it is highly likely that domestic buyers will return to "buy at the bottom" (buy when the price is low), helping the demand for gold to increase again. However, the difference between domestic and world gold prices will not be too large, only about 200,000 - 300,000 VND/tael, instead of a difference of several million VND as before.

It is forecasted that when the market opens a new trading session, the domestic gold price may increase by about 600,000 - 1 million VND/tael, fluctuating around 90 - 92 million VND/tael. This increase depends on the increase in the world gold price and the domestic gold buying demand.