Rice prices today, December 11, 2024: Mixed increases and decreases.

Domestic rice prices

In many localities today, supply is limited, transactions are slow, and prices remain high. In Bac Lieu, farmers are offering a lot of fragrant rice for sale, rice prices are relatively stable, and there is little demand. In An Giang, buying and selling transactions are slow, supply is limited, and prices remain high.

In Soc Trang, rice supplies are sporadic and scattered across several districts, with slow trading and stagnant prices. In Long An, prices are relatively stable, and new buyers are weak. In Dong Thap, early winter-spring rice is traded infrequently, and farmers are offering high prices.

According to an update from the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development of An Giang province, the price of fresh rice continues to fluctuate sharply today. Specifically, the price of OM 18 rice (fresh) increased by 200 VND, fluctuating between 9,200 and 9,400 VND/kg; Dai Thom 8 rice (fresh) increased by 300 VND, fluctuating between 9,200 and 9,400 VND/kg; IR 50404 rice (fresh) fluctuates between 7,800 and 8,000 VND/kg; OM 5451 rice fluctuates between 8,600 and 8,800 VND/kg; OM 380 rice fluctuates between 7,200 VND/kg; Nang Hoa 9 rice fluctuates between 9,200 and 9,400 VND/kg; and Nhat rice is at 7,800 to 8,000 VND/kg.

Regarding rice, according to updates from the Department of Agriculture and Rural Development of An Giang province, the price of IR 504 raw rice has decreased by 50 VND/kg, fluctuating between 10,150 and 10,300 VND/kg; the price of finished IR 504 rice fluctuates between 12,300 and 12,400 VND/kg.

According to reports from various localities today, rice is arriving in small quantities, warehouse prices have slightly decreased, and transactions are slow. In Sa Dec (Dong Thap), raw rice prices have slightly decreased. In Lap Vo (Dong Thap), rice is arriving in small quantities, warehouse prices remain stable, rice prices are unchanged, OM 5451 prices have slightly decreased, and fragrant rice prices are stable.

In Sa Dec market, the supply is limited, but warehouses are buying mostly fragrant rice, and prices for all types of rice remain stable. In An Cu (Cai Be, Tien Giang), rice is available sporadically, with prices down 200 VND/kg compared to yesterday. Most of the rice is of poor quality or average grade, with few high-quality grains.

At retail markets, rice prices remained unchanged compared to yesterday. Regular rice fluctuated between 17,000 and 18,000 VND/kg. Currently, Nang Nhen rice has the highest listed price at 28,000 VND/kg. Fragrant rice is offered at higher prices ranging from 20,000 to 22,000 VND/kg; Jasmine rice at 17,000 to 18,000 VND/kg; Nang Hoa rice at 21,500 VND/kg; long-grain Thai fragrant rice at 20,000 to 22,000 VND/kg; Huong Lai rice at 22,000 VND/kg; common white rice at 17,500 VND/kg; Taiwanese fragrant rice at 21,000 VND/kg; regular Soc rice at 18,500 VND/kg; Soc Thai rice at 21,000 VND/kg; and Japanese rice at 22,500 VND/kg.

Regarding by-products, prices fluctuate between 5,900 and 9,100 VND/kg. Currently, the price of fragrant rice bran ranges from 9,000 to 9,100 VND/kg; the price of dry rice bran has decreased by 50 VND/kg, fluctuating between 5,900 and 6,000 VND/kg.

Export rice prices

On the export market, Vietnam's rice export prices today decreased slightly compared to yesterday. According to the Vietnam Food Association, 100% broken rice is priced at 405 USD/ton; standard 5% broken rice at 513 USD/ton; and 25% broken rice at 480 USD/ton.

In the first 11 months of 2024, Vietnam's rice exports reached a record high, with nearly 8.5 million tons, valued at US$5.31 billion, an increase of 10.6% in volume and 22.4% in value compared to the same period last year. This is an impressive success, considering that in 2023, the country's rice exports only reached 8.13 million tons with a value of US$4.67 billion. However, the rice market is currently witnessing a clear differentiation, especially in the low-grade rice segment.

Lower-grade rice, such as 5% broken rice and 25% broken rice, is experiencing a sharp downward adjustment due to the impact of India reopening its exports and releasing its stockpiles of cheap rice. Vietnamese 5% broken rice is currently priced at only US$513-517 per ton, a decrease of US$56 per ton compared to before India resumed exports at the end of September 2024. This is also the lowest price since July 2023. A similar situation is occurring with rice from major rice exporting countries such as Thailand and Pakistan, causing a widespread decline in lower-grade rice prices on the world market.

Although Vietnam's rice exports achieved impressive results in 2024, businesses in the industry predict that this achievement will be difficult to maintain in 2025. Mr. Thanh, a representative of Angimex, believes that as the 2024-2025 winter-spring crop enters the harvest phase, rice prices will be affected by reduced purchases from Indonesia and the Philippines, having already reached record import volumes in 2024. Furthermore, farmers shifting to producing high-quality rice will increase supply and put downward pressure on prices.

Furthermore, Mr. Nguyen Thanh Phong, Director of Van Loi Food Company, also noted that cheap rice from India will continue to put significant pressure on the prices of 5% and 25% broken rice from Vietnam. The demand for industrial rice in Vietnam may still rely on supplies from India, and the shift of farmers' production towards high-quality rice varieties could also lead to lower rice prices, potentially even dragging down the prices of fragrant and high-quality rice.

In this context, the worst-case scenario is that the price of high-quality rice could plummet, even to the same level as lower-grade varieties like IR 50404 or OM 380, something that has happened in the past. However, some experts still expect a more optimistic scenario, hoping that rice prices will fall, but not too drastically. Meanwhile, with the prospect of declining global rice demand, a Vietnamese rice export miracle like in 2024 may be difficult to repeat in 2025.