NATO sits on fire before Russia, Belarus holds massive military exercises

Moscow is continuing preparations for the Zapad 2017 bilateral strategic military exercise with Belarus scheduled for September. The exercise is considered Russia's biggest show of force since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Photo: Sputnik

NATO member states have become increasingly concerned following reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense plans to deploy more than 4,000 training vehicles to Belarus for the exercise. In addition to concerns about the rationale for the exercise, the sheer scale of the operation suggests that Russian troops may remain on Belarusian territory after Zapad 2017.

On July 6, during a bilateral meeting between US President Donald Trump and Polish President Andrzej Duda in Warsaw, the Zapad exercise was discussed. This issue will also certainly be a matter of great concern for NATO when the exercise takes place from September 14-20 this year.

Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka has been transparent about the scale and objectives of the exercise, and Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has said he will soon provide information to the West about the exercise. Meanwhile, Ukraine's defense minister said the Zapad exercise could end up with Russia opening a new front in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

"Many of you here will take part in the joint strategic exercise of the armed forces of Belarus and Russia, Zapad 2017, in September this year. This is an important step in equipping the armed forces and other military branches to strengthen the systems that ensure Belarus' national security," Lukashenko said on July 6 at a ceremony honoring graduates of military educational institutes and officers in the capital.

President Lukashenko also mentioned the role of the Ministry of Emergency Situations in ensuring Belarus' security and mentioned the continued modernization of the military through the purchase of Russian weapons systems and equipment, highlighting the role of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), a Russia-led military alliance of which Belarus is a member.

Since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia and Belarus have held joint strategic exercises Zapad in 1999, 2009 and 2013. However, the 2017 Zapad exercises will be the first since Russia-NATO relations deteriorated following the Ukraine crisis. The exercises have so far included both defensive and offensive operations aimed at countering the prospect of US and NATO intervention in Belarus, which has often been criticized by NATO.

This year’s exercise will be held in two phases, on the territory of Russia and Belarus, culminating in activities taking place at seven military bases in Belarus. Although the two governments have not yet disclosed the details of the exercise, intelligence sources from Russia and Belarus have provided the necessary information to be able to make preliminary assessments of this large-scale exercise.

Although the exercise will not begin until September 14, Zapad will be preceded by extensive communications and logistics training. A quick exercise is expected to take place in early September, followed by a break before the main exercise, an approach that Russia used during the Vostok 2014 exercise.

This way, Russia can avoid the long preparation period like Zapad 2013, because the units participating in the snap exercise have already been deployed on the same battlefield and will be ready to carry out the main exercise, thus making the exercise more effective. As a result, the Zapad 2017 exercise actually lasted longer than planned.

According to a statement from Belarus, Zapad 2017 will "train local troops with the aim of ensuring military security for the alliance of the two countries." Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu also affirmed that the exercise is only for defensive purposes. Although these statements do not reveal the context of the exercise, just looking at the preparation process for the exercise can also assess whether the main goal of Zapad 2017 is defensive or offensive.

The number of troops participating in Zapad 2017 is still being debated, especially after reports that the Russian Ministry of Defense has mobilized up to 4,126 vehicles of various types to Belarus for this exercise. This number has increased significantly compared to 2015 (125 vehicles) and 2016 (50 vehicles).

The Russian Defense Ministry also said that of these, 2,000 vehicles will be used to transport Russian troops out of Belarus. These 2,000 vehicles are said to be transporting two Russian brigades (about 8,000 soldiers) to Belarus and vice versa. However, this figure contradicts the number given by Belarusian Defense Minister Andrei Ravkov when he announced that only 3,000 troops participated in Zapad 2017 with 280 pieces of equipment and 25 helicopters.

Russian attack aircraft. Photo: Sputnik

Russian attack helicopter destroys target. Photo: Sputnik

Russian army armored vehicles. Photo: Military Industrial Company

According to Western experts, Zapad 2017 will likely test new concepts and approaches in the field of combat, as well as lessons from Russia's conflict experience in Ukraine and Syria. The exercise will focus on inter-agency cooperation, coordination between national forces and coordination between air and ground forces, the use of air defense and missile defense systems, and the deployment of special forces units operating on multiple fronts.

Experts also believe that although there is no information yet, the context of the Zapad 2017 exercise will certainly attract NATO's attention. This stems from the attitude of opposition, retaliation and complete rejection of the legal and political bases of NATO's bombing of Serbia in 1999.

The events of 1999 are increasingly evident in Russia’s strategic thinking and are also reflected in the way the General Staff plans Zapad 2017. Therefore, while the West fears a possible Russian attack on the Baltic states, Moscow is uneasy about the prospect of a conflict on Russia’s periphery with NATO stemming from the intervention in Belarus. Therefore, all activities that will take place during Zapad 2017 will be in the name of defense in response to outside intervention, requiring countermeasures to protect the Russia-Belarus alliance.

Some comments from Russia indicate that Russia is aware of NATO’s concerns about Zapad 2017 and the possibility of rehearsing attacks on NATO members from Belarusian territory. And there are particular signs about the exercise that NATO should pay close attention to.

First of all, the scale of the exercise is a joint exercise between the Russian and Belarusian air forces and special forces. This was clearly demonstrated in the April 2017 exercise, with joint exercises in the Vitebsk Region, Belarus, in an area of ​​12,000 km². The focus is on landing operations, reconnaissance and identification of the enemy. In these purely tactical exercises, the elite force is also tasked with establishing the best areas for the main force to occupy and coordinating air operations with it.

Additionally, while special forces and elite troops conduct exercises supposedly aimed at counter-terrorism, coordinated electronic warfare operations are clearly aimed at attacking conventional enemy forces.

Both sides are focusing on electronic warfare operations against high-tech adversaries operating in complex electronic environments. The aim of developing joint combat capabilities to defend the alliance is very clear, reflected in the development of wars and conflicts in the region. In short, the electronic warfare element will certainly be an important part of the joint Zapad 2017 exercise in September.

The exercise will undoubtedly challenge NATO’s presence in the Baltic states. NATO’s growing concerns about the large-scale exercise ensure that the alliance will be keeping a close eye on Zapad 2017. Given the activity of Russian aircraft and recent incidents involving military equipment in the Baltic Sea, it is possible that more incidents related to Zapad 2017 will occur in the coming months./.

According to Sputnik