The subtle messages sent to China after the Abe-Putin meeting.

(Baonghean) - Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's visit to Russia and meeting with President Putin in Sochi sent a subtle message to China, indicating that its ally is still capable of cooperating with Japan, in line with current global trends.

The Russian president welcomed the Japanese prime minister in Sochi on May 6. Photo: AFP.

Following Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, the US urged its European and Japanese allies to impose sanctions on Russia. Therefore, these countries, when interacting with Russia or President Putin, exercise extreme caution, carefully assessing the US reaction to avoid offending their ally.

Japan is no exception; faced with China's rising power, the land of the cherry blossoms must rely on the US nuclear security umbrella to protect its national security.

Against the backdrop of the Russia-US confrontation, and ahead of the G7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan, later this month, Abe's decision to meet with Putin has naturally become a topic of discussion worldwide.

Will this event affect US-Japan relations? It's worth recalling that during his three years in office, the Japanese Prime Minister met with the Russian President more often than the US President, demonstrating the crucial importance of establishing relations with Moscow for Tokyo. And Japan wouldn't abandon its relationship with Russia just because of its alliance with the US, as the wisest powers diversify their relationships in today's interdependent international environment.

Of course, Abe's visit to Putin on May 6th displeased the US. However, they reacted cautiously, even openly supporting the trip. But the US also knows that Japan-Russia relations have certain limitations; despite numerous meetings with Putin, their bilateral relationship still has many unresolved disagreements. Anticipating the limitations that Japan will find difficult to overcome when engaging with Russia somewhat reassures the US.

From another perspective, improved relations between Japan and Russia also benefit the US, as it will have a subtle impact on China, disrupting Moscow's alliance with Beijing, and simultaneously helping Japan send a message that it is not only an ally of the US but also considers Russia a friend. This situation forces China to reconsider its actions in the South China Sea in particular and the Asia-Pacific region in general.

During his recent trip, Abe undoubtedly informed European countries such as Germany and France about the content of his discussions with Russia in Sochi. However, it's clear that Abe understood that territorial disputes were a difficult topic to resolve at this meeting.

Economically, Japan and Russia have extensive areas of cooperation in gas, liquefied natural gas, finance, technology, and more. And who knows, the agenda between the two leaders might include discussions on cooperation and security, a scenario that, while not explicitly stated, would certainly worry China.

During this trip, Japan also urged Russia to reduce the transfer of weapons and advanced equipment to China, arguing that this would skew the military balance in Northeast Asia, disadvantaging Tokyo and other countries.

Russia and Japan still have much room for economic cooperation, especially in the gas sector. Photo: Internet.

Public opinion is also questioning the real reason why Russia happily welcomed the Japanese Prime Minister. Over the past two years, it can be said that sanctions have significantly impacted the Russian economy. Now, the visit of a US ally and the world's third-largest economy shows that Russia is not alone.

By opening the door to cooperation with Tokyo, Putin's deeper purpose was to send a political and diplomatic message that Russia cannot be isolated. Furthermore, Russia needs capital and technology to support its economic development and unlock its dormant potential, while Japan is a country fully equipped to assist Russia, helping Moscow diversify its partners in exploring the Far East. Clearly, Putin wants to forge a partnership with Japan to reduce pressure and dependence on its ally China, both economically and in terms of security.

For its part, China has been very shrewd and discreet. Some mainstream Chinese news outlets reported on Japan's visit to Russia as a routine event. But in reality, it should be made clear that Beijing does not want Moscow to cooperate with Tokyo, because that would reduce its pressure on Russia and Japan.

Regarding the future development of Russia-Japan relations, as mentioned above, from an economic perspective, Russia needs Japan, and conversely, Japan openly states that it needs Russia. Politically, there are still unresolved issues regarding the Northern/Southern Kuril Islands between the two sides. However, the underlying understanding is that, given China's current power, both Japan and the US are uneasy about the close relationship between Beijing and Moscow; therefore, expanding Japan-Russia relations serves the interests of both Japan and the US.

It can be predicted that in the near future, the two sides will continue to expand their relationship in politics, economics, and security. Territorial disputes and the US-Japan alliance will continue to act as barriers preventing rapid progress in Japan-Russia relations, but the general trend is that this relationship will become increasingly open and develop in a positive direction.

Associate Professor, Doctor, Major General Le Van Cuong

Former Director of the Institute of Strategy and Science, Ministry of Public Security