Annexing 4 provinces of Ukraine to Russia, is it President Putin's 'killing two birds with one stone'?
(Baonghean.vn) - Tonight, at 7:00 p.m. (Hanoi time) and 3:00 p.m. (Moscow time), at the Georgian Hall of the Grand Kremlin Palace, a signing ceremony will take place to annex the territories of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia to Russia. The decisive and swift moves, along with the tough statements of President Putin, seem to show that he is putting all his efforts into this "gamble", both on the battlefield in Ukraine and in Russia itself.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 29 (Moscow time) signed decrees recognizing the "independence" of the two provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson (Ukraine), right before the signing of the annexation. Photo: Tass |
Russian borders redrawn "irreversibly"
Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 29 signed two decrees recognizing the independence of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia provinces (Ukraine). The move is considered to pave the way for the annexation of the territories.
Previously, on September 27, the pro-Russian authorities in the four regions of Lugansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia announced that they had counted all the votes in the referendum from September 23. Specifically, the results were 98.42%, 99.23%, 87.05% and 93.11% of voters, respectively, chose to join Russia.
The Russian parliament may consider a bill to annex four regions in Ukraine on October 4.
The referendum would see Russia's borders redrawn "irreversibly", and all Russian weapons, including nuclear weapons, could be used to defend the annexed territory.
The Russian-controlled regions holding the referendum account for nearly 15% of Ukraine’s total territory. If the annexation of these four regions is successful, along with Crimea, Russia will control an area roughly the size of the US state of Pennsylvania.
Voting will be conducted in two phases. During the first four days, election officials will go door-to-door. Pro-Russian officials say this is to ensure security. On September 27, people will vote in person at collection points. There are differences in the referendums in the four regions. In the Donbass region, which includes Donetsk and Lugansk, the ballot will contain a single “yes” or “no” question on whether to join Russia. In Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, there will be three questions with two “yes” or “no” answers.
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Referendum ballot in Donetsk (left) with one "yes" or "no" question. Referendum ballot in Kherson (right) with two "yes" or "no" questions. Photo: Tass |
Similar to Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, the Ukrainian government and Western countries did not accept this annexation, criticizing it as a "staged" referendum. Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov emphasized that the annexation to Russia is a matter for the people of the provinces to decide for themselves, and Russia always respects it.
Most recently, at the 77th session of the United Nations General Assembly held in New York, USA in late September, Russia's top diplomat made a statement that the referendums in the eastern provinces of Donetsk and Lugansk and the southern provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia "were in fact completely consistent with Kiev's wishes."
Those who live there are essentially responding to what President Vladimir Zelensky advised them in an interview in August 2021. He advised anyone who feels Russian to “go to Russia” for the sake of their descendants. That is what the residents of the aforementioned regions are doing. That is, returning to Russia, taking with them their lands – where their ancestors settled for centuries.
Analysts say the move is intended to send a message to the West that Russia has no intention of backing down from its political and military goals in the Ukraine war. It seems that President Putin is showing the Russian people what the war really means, and hopes that the annexation of territories such as Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Lugansk to “Mother Russia” will arouse strong public support.
Supreme Commander-in-Chief Putin's Strategic Calculations
So what happens after the annexation of the territories? It would be a huge springboard for Russia. Moscow could declare that Ukraine’s military advances into those areas are an attack on Russia. And in this case, as President Putin has said, Russia will use all available means to protect its territorial integrity. It is not excluded that nuclear weapons will be the last resort that President Putin uses.
President Putin is determined to bring Russia to victory, and there will be no retreat despite the difficulties faced, said Andrei Kortunov, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, the Kremlin's foreign and defense policy advisory board.
Russian analysts also commented that President Putin is betting on this annexation. All statements related to this operation, from the annexation to the signing of the decree, are an ultimatum from Russia to Ukraine and the West: withdraw or the war will escalate.
Russian officials and experts have been insisting for months that the military campaign in Ukraine is part of a larger war against NATO.
The decision to annex is a preparation for a full-scale war, or an ultimatum from President Putin to Ukraine and the West: either Ukraine must withdraw, or there will be a nuclear war.
