According to businesses, if the interest rate is below 8%, it is ideal, 8 - 9% is still acceptable, but if it jumps to 11 - 13.5%, businesses will be exhausted.

Recently, many commercial banks have been competing to increase long-term deposit interest rates to over 8% per year. Many experts are concerned that if interest rates are not kept stable, lending interest rates will increase accordingly. This will affect businesses that need support from policies and preferential capital to operate.

Many challenges of interest rate hike

According to analysis by economic expert, Dr. Bui Quang Tin, lecturer at the Banking University of Ho Chi Minh City, the fact that commercial banks are competing to increase long-term deposit interest rates is partly due to the draft amendment to Circular 36 of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV). In particular, reducing the limit on the use of short-term capital for medium- and long-term loans from 60% to 40% has affected the credit flow of banks.

To reduce this pressure, banks have provided medium and long-term loans in many different forms, such as introducing new combined capital mobilization products, increasing interest rates, cross-selling products, enhancing services with medium and long-term capital mobilization products...

If the State Bank continues to operate monetary policy well and there is no shock to the world's finances, lending interest rates will be stable.

Many experts believe that this approach will have a major impact on the economy, especially for the majority of businesses that are trying to survive with bank loans. According to economists' calculations, the current average profit margin of industries is around 10-15%. If the interest rate is below 8%, it is ideal, 8-9% is still enough to "breathe", but if it jumps to 11-13.5%, businesses will be exhausted.

Meanwhile, in 2016, there are still risks in real estate, oil prices, finance and capital flow fluctuations of the global financial economy, causing strong impacts on the Vietnamese economy.

Acknowledging the above difficulties, Director of the Monetary Policy Department Bui Quoc Dung expressed concern that in 2016, Vietnam's financial and monetary markets will continue to be adversely affected, growth is forecast to increase, leading to more difficulties for the state budget, creating many challenges in achieving the goal of maintaining stable interest rates.

Specifically, regarding inflation, increased aggregate demand due to a more pronounced economic growth, combined with the roadmap for increasing prices of many state-managed services, will increase pressure on inflation in 2016, forecast to be around 3-4% this year, much higher than the target of 2.6% in 2015, thereby creating pressure on the mobilization interest rates of credit institutions.

Regarding growth, the target for 2016 is 6.7% and the growth rate is expected to be higher next year than the previous year. The demand for capital to expand production and business in the economy has accumulated greatly and will continue to increase, putting great pressure on lending credit.

Will flexibly operate policies

Although the challenge in stabilizing interest rates and monetary policy in 2016 is huge, Mr. Bui Quoc Dung, Director of the Monetary Policy Department, said that the State Bank will try to consistently and flexibly implement the "pumping out and withdrawing money" through open market operations and other tools to regulate the economy and support credit institutions. Thereby stabilizing the mobilization level and credit lending interest rates, but still controlling inflation and not putting pressure on the exchange rate.

In addition, the State Bank will also have new solutions and tools to manage money supply in accordance with the macroeconomic situation and the monetary market to improve the ability to manage monetary policy.

General Director of Orient Commercial Bank (OCB), Mr. Nguyen Dinh Tung also reassured businesses not to worry too much about interest rates. Normally, increased deposit interest rates put pressure on loan interest rates, but in the cost structure of the bank, which includes capital costs, operating costs and risk management costs, the risk costs have now decreased significantly because bad debts in the past year were resolved very well.

Furthermore, banks are tightening operating costs, much lower than the previous level of 60%, so even though banks increase deposit interest rates, they can still maintain output interest rates, and at the same time focus on controlling risks and operating costs to keep lending rates stable.

“In reality, in the past two months, the State Bank has been very good at stabilizing the exchange rate. And everyone knows the characteristics of the Vietnamese market, it is very open, but the exchange rate openness and the openness to manage output are not like other markets. Once the State Bank declares that it can control it, the exchange rate stability will still remain,” said Mr. Tung.

Economist Vo Tri Thanh, Deputy Director of the CIEM Institute (Ministry of Planning and Investment) also expects that with the SBV's determination to stabilize monetary policy, and if there is no special shock to the world economic and financial markets, lending interest rates will not increase this year and the exchange rate will remain relatively stable. "Personally, if the SBV can do those two things from now until the end of the year, it will be a huge victory," said Dr. Thanh./.

According to VOV