Covid-19 Vaccine: A Miracle Drug That Can Immediately End the Epidemic?

Russia has registered the world's first Covid-19 vaccine and a series of other promising studies have given people around the world hope for an early end to the pandemic. However, with a dangerous and constantly changing virus like SARS-CoV-2, a vaccine is not a magic bullet that can immediately extinguish the pandemic. This will be a long-term battle, with a synchronous plan, from national strategy, public awareness, to the effective support of vaccines and global consensus and sharing.

Scientists, laboratories and governments around the world are racing against time to find an effective and safe vaccine to prevent Covid-19. Another equally fierce race is the "deposit race", with rich countries pouring money into the hope of getting the vaccine first as soon as it is released.

On the first day of the announcement, Russia announced that more than 20 countries around the world had ordered more than 1 billion doses of the vaccine. Billions of dollars worth of vaccine deals have been continuously announced by countries in recent days, showing that there is a "vaccine thirst" going on globally, with the hope that this will be a miracle to help push back the epidemic immediately.

Optimism but not complacency is what the world needs right now. Germany's leading disease research institute, Robert Koch, said it would be dangerous to believe that vaccinations from this fall could control the pandemic.

In fact, previous flu vaccines have been only 20-60% effective, while measles vaccines are 97%. Therefore, a Covid-19 vaccine would need to be more than 70% or even 80% effective to reduce the epidemic trend. The effectiveness of any vaccine will be affected if the virus is constantly changing, or the first vaccine to hit the market may only provide short-term immunity.

The most worrying thing is that the vaccine will become an excuse for complacency, disrespect for social distancing regulations, and not wearing masks - simple but very effective measures to control the epidemic.

The next question is the issue of equitable vaccine distribution. While developed countries are pouring billions of dollars into the fight to own vaccines, less developed and developing countries will have little chance of accessing them. Many experts estimate that the price of a dose of Covid-19 vaccine on the market could be between 50 and 60 USD. Poor countries will not have enough financial capacity to buy the millions of doses needed. And even if prices increase, the vaccine will fall into a situation of insufficient supply to meet demand.

Meanwhile, epidemics have no borders, especially in a globalized world where economies are interconnected and interact with each other. Even though rich countries are trying to acquire vaccines, they cannot become "safe havens" from the virus if poor countries are still at risk of infection. Therefore, even if there is a vaccine, without global solidarity and sharing, this fight will be difficult to achieve success.

“A part or a few countries cannot recover and become safe havens if they have vaccines alone. They should join the rest of the world. Sharing vaccines or other measures will help the world recover together, restore economies faster and reduce the impact of Covid-19,” said Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization.

Vaccines are a big step towards returning to pre-pandemic normal life. However, experts warn that countries may have to continue living in a “new normal” for at least the next few years. Always hope for the best, but it would be better if countries prepare for this reality and plan for the worst./.