What scenario awaits French President Macron - absolute majority, hung parliament or 'cohabitation'?

Many news sites commented that, with the "open" results in the first round, the second round will be the decisive voting round for the National Assembly election in France.

The two leading coalitions are both betting on an absolute majority (289 out of 577 seats), but the latest projections suggest that both could end up with much lower numbers – a highly “unusual” scenario for the Fifth Republic.

There are currently three possible scenarios for the second round of voting on June 19, meaning different prospects for leader Macron to face.

French President Emmanuel Macron waves to voters after the first round of the French parliamentary election on June 12. Photo: Reuters

Absolute majority

The first, and most anticipated by the leader, is that his coalition will win an absolute majority. Macron’s lieutenants have pledged to campaign hard against the “extremist” promises of the NUPES leader, hoping that the tough warnings will convince voters to give them a majority of at least 289 seats in the National Assembly.

If this happens, it will mean that Mr Macron has full authority to realise his manifesto, including a controversial pension reform proposal.

But of course, even in this "bright" case, the French President does not feel as comfortable and easy in promoting legislative work in the National Assembly as in his first term.

hung parliament

The second and most likely scenario could be a hung parliament - meaning no party wins a majority after the vote on June 19.

Many experts predict that Mr. Macron's coalition is likely to remain a "strong team" in the upcoming National Assembly, but do not rule out the possibility of slipping past the 289-seat threshold needed to gain a majority.

If it becomes a reality, this would be unprecedented in the history of the Fifth Republic, and Mr. Macron would probably have to find a way to join hands with other parties such as the conservative Republicans to form a coalition.

At that point, the leader would have to concede key cabinet roles to Republican rivals and tweak his manifesto in exchange for congressional support.

Or Mr Macron could seek out lawmakers individually, then somehow encourage them to defect from his party ranks.

In the worst case, if he fails to do so, Mr Macron may be forced to negotiate, managing to gain a majority on each bill, for example negotiating conservative support for economic reforms, while trying to find centre-left support for social reforms...

Just thinking about it, this scenario could slow down reforms and even lead to political deadlock, in a country where consensus-building and coalition-working are not part of the “culture” of politicians.

But after all, Mr Macron still has the right to call early elections at any time, or to trigger Article 49.3 of the constitution to hold a new election in case a bill is not passed.

Jean-Luc Melenchon - leader of the left-wing NUPES alliance and candidates hold up victory signs ahead of the second round of the French parliamentary election on June 17. Photo: Reuters

"Living Together"

And finally, and least likely, is the prospect of “cohabitation,” which occurred when Mélenchon’s NUPES coalition bucked the polls and unexpectedly won a majority in the French National Assembly.

According to the French constitution, Mr. Macron would then have to appoint a prime minister with the support of the lower house, which would entail "living together" with a left-wing government.

The French president is not forced to choose the name that the majority of lawmakers propose for the prime minister's seat, but if he refuses to appoint Mélenchon, it will almost certainly trigger a power struggle in the National Assembly, as the new majority has the ability to reject any candidate the president proposes.

This so-called “cohabitation” scenario would leave Mr Macron with virtually no levers of power and reverse the leader’s reform agenda. He would retain a leading role in foreign policy and negotiate international treaties, but would cede most of the day-to-day policymaking to the government.

What prospects await President Macron, how the wheel of fate will turn in French politics..., all still have to wait for the voters' decision on June 19.