What trends will shape the future of the global smartphone market?

Canalys, a leading global market research firm, has recently released a comprehensive forecast report, providing detailed figures on the expected global smartphone shipments this year and over the next four years. The forecast brings both positive and challenging news for smartphone vendors.

Smartphone market to recover by 2024

The report shows that smartphone demand is showing signs of recovery in some markets around the world in 2023. Latin America is expected to see 2% growth, while Africa and the Middle East are expected to see more significant recoveries with growth of 3% and 9%, respectively. Despite the improvements in this region, global smartphone shipments in 2023 are estimated to reach 1.13 billion units, reflecting a 5% decline compared to the figure recorded in 2022.

“The smartphone industry is clearly emerging from its darkest days, even if shipments remain 20% below their 2017 peak,” said Toby Zhu, Senior Analyst at Canalys. “The good news is that consumers are spending more on smartphones, with average selling prices now exceeding $440 compared to $332 in 2017. Profitability is helping hardware makers strategically launch flashy new features to attract consumers in key growth markets.”

The global smartphone market forecast for 2024 is more optimistic. Canalys predicts a surge in global smartphone sales, reaching an estimated 1.17 billion units. This represents a remarkable 4% annual growth compared to the forecast for 2023.

“The smartphone recovery in 2024 will be driven by emerging markets, where smart devices remain essential for connectivity and entertainment,” said Sanyam Chaurasia, Senior Analyst at Canalys. “A third of smartphones shipped in 2024 will be purchased in Asia-Pacific markets, compared to just one-fifth in 2017. This region will also see the fastest growth at 6% year-on-year, driven by rising demand in India, Southeast Asia and South Asia. As macroeconomic conditions and consumer confidence stabilize in these countries, smartphone upgrades will accelerate.”

The report’s key takeaway is that consumers are increasingly willing to invest more in their smartphones. The average selling price has risen to $440, signaling a shift in consumer behavior toward higher-end devices. Emerging markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region, are poised to be the growth drivers by 2024. This includes dynamic markets such as India, South Korea, Vietnam, Indonesia and Malaysia, which together account for 33% of all new smartphone shipments.

Commenting on the potential for AI integration in smartphones, Canalys analyst Runar Bjørhovde warned: “On-device AI capabilities will have a limited impact on driving premium smartphone upgrades in 2024. We expect less than 5% of smartphones shipped next year to be equipped with advanced AI-enabled chipsets that can run on-device AI models. Premium smartphone growth has stalled as replacement demand in developed markets such as Western Europe and the US remains weak. Many consumers in these markets upgraded to premium devices during the pandemic. The real growth cycle for premium devices in these regions may not occur until 2024-2025, when AI features and use cases become compelling enough to drive upgrades.”

Encouragingly, the report predicts a stabilization in smartphone sales due to growing consumer confidence and improving macroeconomic conditions. Except for North America, all major markets will see growth by 2024. The Asia-Pacific, Middle East and Africa region will see 6% annual growth, while Europe is expected to lead the way with 7% annual growth.

Looking further into the future, Canalys envisions a sustained growth trend in demand, with smartphone shipments expected to reach 1.25 billion units by 2027. This optimistic outlook reflects the resilient nature of the smartphone market, driven by technological advances, shifting consumer preferences and a recovering global economy.

Key trends shaping the future of the global smartphone market

Several key trends are shaping the future of the global smartphone market, including:

Applying 5G technology:The rollout of 5G networks will have a transformative impact on the smartphone industry, enabling faster data speeds, lower latency, and the proliferation of new applications and services. This requires smartphone manufacturers globally to increasingly integrate 5G technology into their products to meet the needs of future users.

Artificial intelligence (AI) integration:AI is increasingly being integrated into smartphones, enabling features such as speech recognition, natural language processing, and personalized recommendations. AI will play a key role in the development of future smartphone models to support users in using new applications such as augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) experiences.

Focus on user experience and privacy:Smartphone manufacturers are placing more emphasis on user experience and data privacy. This includes providing intuitive and user-friendly interfaces as well as strong security measures to protect user data.

The need for access to environmentally friendly smart devices:Consumers are increasingly demanding access to eco-friendly smart devices. This is pushing smartphone manufacturers to adopt sustainable practices in their production and supply chains.

Growing demand for smartphones in emerging markets:Emerging markets offer significant growth opportunities for smartphone manufacturers, with growing demand for reliable and affordable devices.

Future prospects of the smartphone market

The smartphone market will continue its growth trajectory, albeit at a slower pace than in the past decade. This growth will be driven by factors such as increasing smartphone penetration in emerging markets, the adoption of 5G technology, and the integration of AI into new applications and services.

However, the smartphone market is also facing challenges, including growing market maturity, increasing competition and the need for innovation to differentiate products. Smartphone manufacturers will need to adapt to these challenges by focusing on user experience, data privacy, sustainability measures and emerging market opportunities to maintain their competitive edge.

In conclusion, the smartphone market will continue to grow and develop in the coming years. The industry will be shaped by technological advancements, consumer preferences, and global market trends. Smartphone manufacturers can adopt these trends and offer innovative and user-centric products to succeed in the ever-changing smartphone market landscape.