What message does Russia's tactical nuclear exercise send to the West?

Both the Foreign Ministry and the Defense Ministry in Moscow stressed in public statements that the exercise was intended to warn the United States and its allies not to escalate the conflict in Ukraine further.

The Kremlin has also repeatedly stated that while the West has repeatedly accused Russia of making nuclear threats, Moscow's nuclear doctrine was introduced in July 2020 and remains unchanged.

Quick drills

The Russian Defense Ministry said on May 6 that the purpose of these exercises was to address “practical aspects of preparing and deploying non-strategic nuclear weapons,” as well as to increase the readiness of both equipment and personnel, “to ensure the integrity and sovereignty of Russia.”

The exercises will take place in the Southern Military District, which borders Ukraine. Headquartered in Rostov-on-Don, it is Russia's smallest military district and covers Crimea, the Caucasus, the Rostov, Volgograd and Krasnodar regions, as well as the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), Lugansk People's Republic (LPR), Kherson and Zaporozhye regions.

Russia's tactical nuclear arsenal

Warheads with a yield measured in kilotons of TNT – such as the weapons used by the US to attack the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in April 1945 – are now considered tactical nuclear weapons. They are designed for use against battlefield targets, whether battle formations or fortified fighting positions.

A tactical nuclear warhead with a yield of 5-50 kilotons can be mounted on the 9M723-1 ballistic missile or the 9M728 cruise missile, both of which are launched from the Iskander-M complex. Similar warheads can be mounted on the Kh-47M2 Kinzhal and Kh-32 cruise missiles carried by Russian bombers.

Some artillery systems can also carry tactical nuclear warheads with a yield of 2–2.5 kilotons, mounted in 152 mm artillery shells and 240 mm mortar shells.

Russia is estimated to have nearly 6,000 nuclear warheads of various capabilities. An unknown number of tactical nuclear warheads were deployed in Belarus last year, in response to NATO members supplying depleted uranium munitions to Ukraine.

The US currently has about 180 tactical nuclear bombs deployed at six bases in Europe – two in Italy and one each in Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands and Türkiye. The government in Warsaw has also expressed its willingness to accept these weapons, and Moscow has responded that if so, it would consider Poland a priority target.

Message to the West

The Russian Foreign Ministry said on May 6 that tactical nuclear exercises were taking place “against the backdrop of recent bellicose statements by Western officials and serious destabilizing actions by some NATO countries” related to the conflict in Ukraine.

The US-led bloc's policy of inflicting a “strategic defeat” on Russia is leading it to “further escalation of the Ukraine crisis towards an open military conflict” between NATO and Moscow, the ministry added.

The ministry cited, as examples, Polish statements about the possibility of deploying US nuclear weapons in Poland, as well as France's recent nuclear moves and President Emmanuel Macron's remarks about the possibility of sending French and other NATO troops to Ukraine.

Russian nuclear doctrine

According to a decree signed by President Vladimir Putin in July 2020, Moscow's nuclear arsenal is intended to deter external aggression against Russia.

This doctrine “is defensive in nature, aimed at maintaining nuclear potential at a level sufficient to ensure nuclear deterrence and ensure the protection of the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the state, to prevent a potential enemy from launching an aggression against the Russian Federation and (or) its allies, and – in the event of a military conflict – to prevent the escalation of hostilities and to terminate the conflict on terms acceptable to the Russian Federation and (or) its allies”.

The decree states that Russia considers nuclear weapons “only a means of deterrence” and considers their use “an extreme and compulsory measure.”

The doctrine sets out the conditions under which the Russian President will use nuclear weapons. Of particular importance is Article 17, which states that Russia “reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction against it and/or its allies, as well as in the case of aggression against the Russian Federation using conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is threatened”.

Accusations and rebuttals

Time and again since the Ukraine conflict escalated in February 2022, the US has accused Russia of threatening to use nuclear weapons and even considering using tactical nuclear weapons against the government in Kiev. Moscow has repeatedly dismissed such claims as baseless speculation.

For example, RT reported that a CNN reporter in March said that Washington had begun “thorough preparations” for the possibility of Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine in late 2022, when Kiev’s forces entered Kherson and Kharkiv. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin said in an interview that he “never thought about using tactical nuclear weapons” despite “various scenarios” that had arisen on the battlefield.

In a speech to Russian lawmakers in late February, Mr. Putin accused the West of toying with nuclear disaster.

“Everything they are coming up with now, which they are scaring the world with, all of it really poses a threat of a conflict involving nuclear weapons, and therefore, the destruction of civilization. Don’t they understand this?” the Russian president said at the time.

Earlier this year, while the US Congress was debating a $61 billion military aid bill for Kiev, the US made vague allegations about Russia’s secret nuclear capabilities in space. The Kremlin has denied such speculation.