Lessons on subjectivity and negligence in responding to natural disasters

The cause of the heavy damage in the recent flood, in addition to objective factors, is also due to human subjectivity and negligence.

60 people died, 37 people are missing and 31 people are injured. These are the heartbreaking numbers caused by the floods that occurred from October 10 to October 14. The cause of this heavy damage, in addition to objective factors, is also due to human subjectivity and negligence.

In just under a week, the floods caused by the tropical depression that started from October 10 to October 14 have caused severe damage to people and property in the northern and north central provinces. Compared to storm No. 10, which was considered a super storm with the strongest winds in the past 10 years, killing 6 people, the recent heavy rains caused by the tropical depression are truly serious, with 97 people dead and missing.

Many houses in Thach Dinh commune, Thach Thanh district, Thanh Hoa province are submerged in water.

The water rose so quickly that people had no time to react. Many people lost their homes and loved ones in just one night. In fact, after just a few hours, hundreds of houses were submerged in water.

According to disaster prevention experts, there are many reasons for the heavy loss of life and property during the recent tropical depression. In addition to the objective reasons due to climate change and extreme weather causing unusual floods such as heavy rains and sudden floods, there are also subjective reasons from all levels, sectors and the people themselves.

At the press conference on response to the flood from October 10 to 12, 2017 on the afternoon of October 13 of the Central Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control, Mr. Nguyen Van Hai, Head of the Response Operations Department, Department of Natural Disaster Response and Overcoming, General Department of Natural Disaster Prevention and Control, said that the Center for Hydrometeorology has not accurately forecasted the total amount of rainfall caused by the tropical low pressure circulation, leading to many difficulties in response.

Water rises quickly, many areas are flooded

Mr. Nguyen Van Hai cited specific evidence: In the forecast bulletin No. 32 of the Central Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting issued at 3:15 p.m. on October 10, the forecast at 1 a.m. on October 11 was that the water flow to Hoa Binh Lake was 3,800 m3/s, while the actual water flow was 9,360 m3/s, a difference of nearly 6,000 m3. Then, at 3 p.m. on the same day, the forecasting agency estimated the water flow to be 2,900 m3/s, while the actual flow was 11,290 m3/s, a difference of more than 8,000 m3/s...

In addition, some local authorities are still passive in response. In Hoa Binh province, the locality most severely damaged in the recent floods, with 20 dead and 13 missing, the authorities have provided very little information to reporters. In addition, due to the customs and practices of people in mountainous provinces, they often live on hillsides, at the foot of mountains or near rivers.

When there is a big flood, commune officials and soldiers have to go to each household to mobilize people to evacuate, but due to customs and practices, people ignore the danger and still stay; even in many mountainous areas, people clear hills and build houses right at the foot, when landslides occur, they will bury the houses, leading to human losses. The story of a village official in Khanh hamlet, Phu Cuong commune, Tan Lac district, Hoa Binh province who died while mobilizing Muong people to evacuate from dangerous areas is an example. According to statistics, currently there are about 100,000 houses in the country that need to be evacuated.

Mr. Tran Quang Hoai, Director General of the General Department of Natural Disaster Prevention and Control, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development said: “The current human losses in natural disasters are due to subjective reasons. This is due to people's awareness, local propaganda not meeting requirements and due to specific conditions, due to lack of land in mountainous areas. Currently, people in the area are scattered, so information cannot reach many areas. This is a problem that cannot be allowed to happen again in the future.”

Mr. Hoang Duc Cuong, Director of the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, admitted that it is currently very difficult to accurately forecast rainfall, and this is true not only in Vietnam but also around the world.

“Forecasting rain is difficult and responding to rain is also very complicated. In Vietnam, the heaviest rainfall after a storm often occurs in the middle of the night. That is the terrain and climate characteristics that cause rain. Therefore, the afternoon forecast and warning bulletins are very important. With such difficulties, we can only make assessments from afar, in terms of quantitative range, the possibility of heavy rain, widespread heavy rain. The closer to the event, the more specific the area. The afternoon bulletin is very important. The following afternoon bulletin is even more important, because it is closer to the morning. Unfortunately, this is also a very difficult time in terms of response and communication. This is what we need to overcome," said Mr. Duc Cuong.

Experience in dealing with super typhoon No. 10 shows that, despite the size of the storm, direct damage was not severe due to careful planning. Before the storm made landfall, local authorities and people were aware of prevention and were not complacent or negligent.

Hundreds of thousands of boats were able to avoid the storm in time, and tens of thousands of households were moved to safety. Meanwhile, the rains circulating after the recent tropical depression caused serious consequences. This is a valuable lesson for all levels, sectors, localities and people in the areas suffering from the consequences of natural disasters to learn from in the coming time./.

According to VOV