US Presidential Election: Important things to know

The US presidential election process is considered the most complex political marathon in the world, and also one of the most closely watched political events on the planet. The US presidential election is always one of the fiercest political races for anyone aspiring to enter the White House.

What is the Electoral College?

One of the most unique and controversial elements of the U.S. presidential election system is the Electoral College. This is a complex system where the president is not elected directly by the popular vote, but through the votes of the Electoral College.

When voters go to the polls this November, they will technically not be voting for Trump or Harris, but for members of the "Electoral College." This concept refers to a group of people whose job it is to elect the president. This system has been in place for 200 years. The Founding Fathers wanted to establish a democratic system, but they worried that popular vote might elect an unsuitable president.

The Electoral College was established to address this concern. Each state is allocated a different number of electoral votes, based on its population size. Today, there are 538 electoral votes, and a candidate needs to gather at least 270 to win. In most states, the candidate who wins the more popular votes wins all of the electoral votes.

For example, whether a candidate wins 99% or 51% of the popular vote in California, they will still receive all 55 electoral votes from that state. This is why a candidate can lose the national popular vote but still win a majority of the electoral votes to be elected. In two of the last five elections, the candidate with the fewer popular votes won. This means that campaigns typically focus on winning all 270 electoral votes.

Therefore, candidates will campaign in battleground states, rather than trying to sway voters in states that typically lean heavily toward one party. In fact, in the 2016 election, about two-thirds of the campaign events took place in just six states.

Thus, the 538 electoral votes play a crucial role in electing the US President. Over the years, there have been attempts to change the electoral system, but supporters argue that it ensures decisive results. And everyone knows the rules before they enter the game.

Special things about the official election day.

American voters are increasingly accustomed to presidential races with extremely close results. In 2000, 2016, and 2020, the difference was only tens of thousands of votes.

As usual, anything can happen, and in recent years, surprises have been frequent. Here are some potential "pathways" that could lead candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump to victory:

For Vice President Harris, the ballot map is analyzed in a much simpler way. By replicating President Joe Biden's "blue wall" campaign strategy, Harris is almost certain to enter the Oval Office. This takes into account the expectation that she will win one electoral vote in Nebraska and lose one in Maine. These are two states that distribute electoral votes to both the state and congressional winners.

If the "blue wall" cracks and Pennsylvania shifts to Donald Trump's advantage, Harris's path will become more complicated. The Commonwealth has 19 electoral votes. Harris would need to make up for that by winning Georgia and North Carolina, both of which have 16 votes. If she doesn't get the votes she needs there, Nevada and Arizona could become decisive factors.

Similar to candidate Harris, former President Donald Trump's political map heavily favors Pennsylvania. If he wins there while maintaining his lead in North Carolina, the former president only needs Georgia to rejoin his ranks to reach 270 votes. Winning without Pennsylvania, for Trump, would mean the "blue wall" would have to crack elsewhere. In that scenario, Trump might need to win Michigan or Wisconsin and add a significant lead in the Sun Belt, stretching from Georgia on the East Coast to Arizona and Nevada in the West.

The "illusions" of red and blue dots are also one of the elements that make election day special.

Four years ago, the first few hours after polling stations closed revealed a "red mirage" in several key swing states – with initial results appearing more favorable to Trump than the final results revealed hours or days later.

"Illusions" in election results are often the result of a number of factors, including geography such as smaller counties and rural areas that tend to favor the Republican party, have fewer votes, and report results more quickly.

States and counties also typically count and report results for early voting, election day voting, and mail-in voting at the same time. When a party tends to win better using a particular method, such as the Democrats did with mail-in voting in 2020, results can shift as election officials move from counting one type of ballot to another.

Another factor explaining the "illusions" of the blue and red dots is that each state sets its own rules regarding when ballots can be opened and counted.

The final, certain results of the presidential race may not be announced on the night of November 5th, or even November 6th, and initial figures from battleground states may be difficult to analyze.

But most notably were the races for the House of Representatives, and then the Senate shortly thereafter.

If the presidency and control of the House of Representatives seem like a coin toss before an election, the battle for control of the Senate is predicted to be far less dramatic.

The Democratic Party currently holds a majority in the Senate, though not a large one, with 51 senators. Four of these are independent senators, under the leadership of Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.

For the party that wins the White House, 50 votes would be enough to secure a majority in the Senate.

This year, the Republican Party holds the advantage thanks to its more pro-Spanish parliamentary groups. The Republicans have a chance of winning a majority if they can regain even just one of those seats from the Democrats. This would allow the Republicans to reverse the situation in the Senate. For the Democrats, there is virtually no room for error.

And in the House of Representatives, will the Democratic Party gain control, given that the current Speaker is a Republican?

The fate of the House of Representatives could become even more crucial if former President Trump returns to the Oval Office and the Republican Party gains control of the Senate. A Republican majority in the House would give Trump almost absolute power to pass his agenda into law. A Democratic majority would serve as the last line of defense against the former president's policies, and potentially against future policies as well.

A challenging journey

For anyone aspiring to become President of the United States, they must be prepared to face intense debates, fierce competition, and relentless challenges. This is not just a race for power, but also a test of perseverance, leadership, and strategic vision.

The US presidential election is truly one of the most complex and difficult processes on the planet, where the most powerful individuals rise to leadership positions in one of the world's most powerful nations.