US Presidential Election: Special things to know

The US presidential election process is considered the most complicated political marathon in the world, and is also one of the most closely watched political events on the planet. The US presidential election is always one of the most fierce political races for anyone who wants to step into the White House.

What is the Electoral College?

One of the most unique and controversial elements of the US presidential election system is the Electoral College. This is a complex system where the president is not elected directly by the popular vote of the voters, but through the votes of the Electoral College.

When voters go to the polls in November, they will not technically be voting for Mr. Trump or Ms. Harris, but for members of the “Electoral College.” That refers to the group of people tasked with choosing the president. The system has been in place for 200 years. The founders of the United States wanted a democratic system, but they worried that the popular vote might end up selecting an unfit president.

The Electoral College was created to address this concern. Each state is allocated a different number of electoral votes based on its population. Today, there are 538 electoral votes, and a candidate must collect at least 270 to win. In most states, the candidate who wins the popular vote wins all the electoral votes.

For example, whether a candidate wins 99% or 51% of the popular vote in California, he or she will still receive all 55 electoral votes from that state. This is why a candidate can lose the national popular vote and still win a majority of the electoral votes to be elected. In two of the last five elections, the candidate with fewer popular votes has won. This means that campaigns often focus on how to win 270 electoral votes.

So candidates will campaign in battleground states, rather than trying to change voters in states that typically lean toward one party. In fact, in the 2016 election, about two-thirds of campaign events took place in just six states.

So, the 538 electoral votes play a crucial role in electing the US President. There have been attempts over the years to change the electoral college system, but supporters say it helps deliver decisive results. And everyone knows the rules before they play.

Special things on the official election day

American voters have become accustomed to extremely close presidential races. In 2000, 2016 and 2020, the results were only tens of thousands of votes apart.

As usual, anything can happen, and in recent years, the unexpected has happened quite often. Here are some “potential paths” to victory for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump:

For Vice President Harris, the map is much simpler to analyze. Echoing President Joe Biden’s “blue wall” campaign, Harris is almost certain to make it to the Oval Office. That’s based on the expectation that she will win one electoral vote in Nebraska and lose another in Maine, two states that award electoral votes to both state and congressional winners.

If the “blue wall” cracks and Pennsylvania flips to Trump, Harris’s path will become more complicated. The Commonwealth has 19 electoral votes. Harris will need to make up for that by winning Georgia and North Carolina, both of which have 16. If she doesn’t get the votes she hopes for there, Nevada and Arizona could be decisive factors.

Like Harris, former President Donald Trump’s map is heavily tilted toward Pennsylvania. If he wins there while still holding on to North Carolina, the former president only needs Georgia to flip to reach 270 votes. A win without Pennsylvania, for Trump, would mean the “blue wall” would have to crack elsewhere. In that scenario, Trump would likely need to win Michigan or Wisconsin and add to his strong showing in the Sun Belt, from Georgia on the East Coast to Arizona and Nevada in the West.

The "illusion" of red and blue dots is also one of the factors that make election day special.

Four years ago, the early hours after polls closed showed a “red mirage” in several key swing states – with initial results looking more favorable for Mr Trump than the final results that emerged hours or days later.

“Mirages” in election results are often the result of a number of factors, including geography, as small, rural counties tend to favor Republicans, have fewer votes, and report results more quickly.

States and counties also typically count and report early voting, Election Day voting, and mail-in voting at the same time. When one party tends to do better with a certain method, as Democrats did with mail-in voting in 2020, results can change as election officials switch from counting one type of ballot to another.

Another factor that explains the blue and red dot "illusion" is that each state sets its own rules about when ballots can be opened and counted.

A final, definitive result in the presidential race may not be known until the night of November 5, or even November 6, and early numbers from battleground states may be difficult to parse.

But most notable are the House races, and soon after, the Senate.

If the presidency and control of the House of Representatives appear to be a coin toss ahead of Election Day, the battle for control of the Senate is expected to be much less dramatic.

Democrats currently hold a small majority in the Senate, with 51 senators, four of whom are independents, led by majority leader Chuck Schumer.

For the party that wins the White House, 50 votes would be enough to secure a majority in the Senate.

This year, Republicans are in a strong position thanks to their friendlier congressional groups. Republicans could potentially win a majority if they can win back even one of those seats from the Democrats. That would give them a shot at turning the tables in the Senate. For Democrats, there is little room for error.

As for the House of Representatives, will the Democrats gain control, as the current Speaker of the House is a Republican?

The fate of the House of Representatives could become even more important if former President Trump returns to the Oval Office and Republicans win the Senate. A Republican majority in the House would give Trump almost complete power to pass his agenda into law. A Democratic majority would serve as a last bulwark against the policies of past and future presidents.

A challenging journey

For anyone aspiring to be President of the United States, they must be prepared for fierce debates, tense races and relentless challenges. This is not just a race for power, but also a test of perseverance, leadership and strategic vision.

The US Presidential election is indeed one of the most complex and difficult processes on the planet, where the strongest people will rise and step into the leadership position of one of the most powerful countries in the world.