Covid-19 outbreak forecast in summer

vnexpress.net• May 20, 2020 15:54

Scientists warn that high temperatures do not limit the spread of Covid-19, and countries need to prepare for an outbreak in the summer.

According to a study by a group of scientists from Princeton University and the US National Institutes of Health, hot weather does not have much impact on Covid-19 because people are more susceptible to diseases, contrary to the hope that the disease will spread more slowly due to seasonal changes.

The results of this study were published in the journal Science on May 18. Scientists built a Covid-19 infection model, with parameters including climate change affecting disease transmission, the duration of immunity after infection, adjusted for climate sensitivity compared to two other strains of Corona virus.

They then ran a number of scenarios based on what they knew about the coronavirus. They found that weather conditions, such as temperature and latitude, only produced “modest changes” in the size of the pandemic. In the long run, these changes could be useful in predicting future outbreaks.

In addition, the proportion of the population that is immune will affect the spread of the pandemic, since everyone is susceptible to infection. Experts are uncertain whether antibodies in people who have had Covid-19 will protect them from getting sick again, and if so, how long the protection will last.

Người dân đeo khẩu trang trong giờ cao điểm tại ga Shinagawa, Nhật Bản, để phòng Covid-19. Ảnh: Reuters.

People wear masks during rush hour at Shinagawa Station, Japan, to prevent Covid-19. Photo: Reuters.

"Tropical and temperate countries should prepare for a strong outbreak of the disease, as summer temperatures will not prevent transmission," the team concluded.

The team also warned of a second wave of Covid-19 in Europe as countries lift lockdowns, calling for continued implementation of prevention measures such as testing, tracing, social distancing and hand washing.

Previous studies on the effects of temperature have shown similar results. In February, a study by a team of experts, including epidemiologist Marc Lipsitch from Harvard University’s Chan School of Public Health, found that the new coronavirus can still be transmitted even in high temperature and humidity environments. A French study in April also found that some strains of the virus can replicate even at temperatures of 60 degrees Celsius.

To date, the World Health Organization and health officials of various countries have maintained that nCoV, as well as other coronavirus strains, are destroyed in high temperature environments. nCoV can only survive in humid environments, below 25 degrees Celsius. However, other opinions say that it is too early to conclude that hot weather can kill nCoV.