Germany's next Chancellor: Can he overcome Merkel's 'shadow'?

Victory is only relative

After 16 years as German Chancellor, the official preliminary election results on September 26 (local time) showed that the Social Democratic Party (SPD) had a lead of 1.6 points over the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), a result so close that no one could predict who the next Chancellor would be or what the next government would look like. The only thing that seemed clear was that it would take weeks, if not months, to form a government coalition.

This reality has left the EU's largest country facing uncertainty at a crucial time when Europe is struggling to recover from the pandemic and France - Germany's key partner in Europe - is about to hold divisive elections next spring.

The hallmark of Merkel's time in power has been stability. Her centre-right CDU party, in coalition with a smaller party, has governed Germany for about 52 of the 72 post-war years.

But the recent election has been the most volatile in decades. Armin Laschet, the candidate of Merkel’s CDU party, had long been considered the frontrunner until a series of missteps, coupled with falling approval ratings, eroded the CDU’s lead. Meanwhile, Olaf Scholz, the Social Democrat, has been a steady performer, leading his party to a stunning 10-point surge. The Greens also led the polls initially but have since fallen short of expectations, although they still recorded their best-ever result.

On September 26, the CDU's approval rating plummeted below 30%, reaching its worst level in history. For the first time in Germany, three parties will be needed to form a coalition government. The CDU and SPD are now planning to hold competitive negotiations to achieve this goal.

At the SPD headquarters in Berlin, crowds cheered as the preliminary election results were announced. "The SPD will be back," Lars Klingbeil, the party's general secretary, told party members before Mr Scholz took to the stage with his wife and declared: "The next German chancellor will be Olaf Scholz."

Meanwhile, at the headquarters of the conservative CDU party, Mr. Laschet, the party's candidate, declared: "We will do everything to form a government."

Talk of an SPD “victory” and a CDU “defeat” is relative. In reality, the two parties are separated by less than 2%, and both parties only have about 50% of the national vote, enough to form a grand coalition. In a televised debate before the election, Mr. Scholz said that if he had the chance to form a coalition government, he would like to form a coalition with the Greens. However, the SPD cannot form a government with the Greens alone. They still need a third party to form a government.

Overcoming Merkel's "shadow" or becoming Merkel 2.0?

The current chaos could complicate negotiations to form a government. And whoever becomes German chancellor will not only have less power but also less time to devote to European leadership, analysts said in the New York Times.

"Germany will be absent from Europe for a while. Whoever becomes chancellor will likely be more distracted by domestic politics," said Andrea Römmele, head of the Hertie School in Berlin.

The result also gives a significant boost to two smaller parties that are almost certain to be part of the new government: the Greens and the Free Democrats. The narrow margin of victory also suggests that German voters appear disoriented by the departure of Chancellor Merkel, Germany’s most popular politician. Merkel has led Germany through a golden decade to become Europe’s largest economy and brought unemployment to its lowest level since the 1980s.

Russian President Putin holds talks with German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Illustrative photo

While America is embroiled in wars, Britain bets its future on a referendum to leave the EU and France fails to reinvent itself, Germany under Chancellor Merkel remains a stable country.

“It is difficult to predict what will happen next. Chancellor Merkel’s presence and reputation are so great that it is difficult to compete,” said Kleine-Brockhoff of the German Marshall Fund.

That explains why both of the most likely candidates to succeed Ms Merkel have largely delivered a message of continuity, rather than change, from Ms Merkel's policies and have tried to show that they would be the most like the departing chancellor.

“This election is essentially a competition to see who is most like Merkel,” said Kleine-Brockhoff.

Even Mr Scholz, who is from the opposition party to Ms Merkel's conservatives, has focused on his role as finance minister in the current government, rather than emphasizing his party's views.

“Stability, not change, is his commitment,” Kleine-Brockhoff said.

Some analysts say that the increasing fragmentation in German politics could bring a new atmosphere to the country's politics with more voices but more clarity, which also makes leadership and decision-making more difficult as Germany becomes more like other European countries such as Spain, Italy and the Netherlands. A more chaotic political scene will weaken the power of the next Chancellor and the challenges awaiting the future leader will certainly continue to increase./.