The West's dilemma in providing weapons to Ukraine

The United States and European countries have provided a lot of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. Some countries have even donated most or all of their artillery stocks. The question now is how many artillery systems and how much ammunition can they provide and stockpile for their armed forces.

For example, France announced in January 2023 that it would supply Ukraine with 12 more 155mm Caesar truck-mounted howitzers, in addition to the 18 systems it had already supplied. The number of guns Paris is providing to Kiev accounts for more than a third of the 76 Caesar howitzers in the French army.

French Caesar self-propelled guns fire in the Euphrates River Valley in December 2018. Photo: US Army

Also in January 2023, Denmark pledged to provide nine Caesar howitzers it had purchased from France to Ukraine for a period of six months. Estonia also pledged to deliver all 24 of its FH-70 155mm tracked self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine. The UK plans to send 30 of its 89 AS90 155mm self-propelled howitzers to Kiev.

European countries are facing the same challenge that all countries supporting Ukraine face: they have limited ammunition and weapons in their stockpiles, while increasing weapons production is facing many difficulties.

For now, at least the US and countries with large armies in Europe such as the UK, France, Germany and even Sweden still have large enough arsenals to supply Ukraine, while maintaining the necessary equipment for their own armies.

But for smaller NATO members, this is a real problem. Estonia has just 192 artillery systems, according to 2022 data from The Military Balance published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. Of those 192 systems, about 126 are 81mm and 120mm mortars with ranges of less than 8km, along with 30 Soviet-era 122mm D-30 howitzers with ranges of 16-22km.

That means that supplying Ukraine with all 24 FH-70 155mm self-propelled tracked howitzers with a range of over 30km would not only take up 13% of Estonia's artillery stock but also take away most of the country's long-range artillery, leaving Estonia with only a few South Korean-made 155mm K9 self-propelled howitzers with a range of about 40km.

Ukraine fires 155mm FH-70 self-propelled tracked howitzer in Zaporizhzhia region in October 2022. Photo: Getty

The supply to Ukraine of all French-made Caesar guns originally intended for the Danish army also caused turmoil in that country.

"It is the most powerful and longest-range weapon system in the Danish army. It is a weapon that everyone expects and that soldiers want to use," the Danish Broadcasting Corporation said. Danish Defense Minister Jakob Ellemann-Jensen also expressed concern that the Caesar shipment to Ukraine would delay the modernization of Denmark's artillery force.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg warned that the Ukrainian army was using large amounts of ammunition to counter Russian attacks and this was putting pressure on Western arsenals and defense companies.

Ukraine situationWhile Ukraine has been pressing for more weapons from the West to counter Russia’s numerical superiority, the military must also learn how to operate and maintain artillery, tanks, missiles and other weapons systems.

Ukraine not only relies on other countries to provide support and maintenance for its weapons, but also needs a steady and sustained supply of ammunition. The US is struggling to increase production of 155mm artillery shells, which Ukraine uses up to 7,000 a day. But expanding production capacity could take years, and some artillery systems may not even be in production anymore.

For countries with large military capabilities, this may cause temporary inconvenience as defense industrial bases shift production capacity to meet demand during the protracted conflict in Ukraine. However, for smaller countries, they cannot produce heavy artillery themselves and the alternative is to import it from countries that can.

The question is whether countries like the US, UK and France can simultaneously supply weapons to Ukraine, replenish their own arsenals and provide weapons to other allies?